Warn on Forecast
Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research program tasked to increase tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warning lead times. Increasing the lead time and accuracy for hazardous weather and water warnings and forecasts, in order to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, is one of the strategic goals of NOAA. Trends in yearly-averaged tornado warning lead time suggest that the present weather warning process, largely based upon a warn-on-detection approach using National Weather Service (NWS) Doppler radars, is reaching a plateau and further increases in lead time will be difficult to obtain. A new approach is needed to extend warning lead time in which probabilistic hazard guidance is provided by an ensemble of forecasts from convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models.
NEW! NSSL WoF Project Realtime Forecast Experiment for HWT
May 4–June 5, 2015, “Weather Permitting.”
Warn-on-Forecast Fact Sheet, a brief overview of the WoF project, in layperson's language (.pdf, 9.3 MB)
Left: An ensemble of storm-scale NWP models predicts the path of a potentially tornadic supercell during the next hour. The ensemble is used to create probabilistic tornado guidance.
Right: Probabilistic tornado guidance: Forecast look on track, storm circulation (hook echo) is tracking along centerline of highest tornadic probabilities.