Warn on Forecast

Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research program tasked to increase tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warning lead times. Increasing the lead time and accuracy for hazardous weather and water warnings and forecasts, in order to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, is one of the strategic goals of NOAA. Trends in yearly-averaged tornado warning lead time suggest that the present weather warning process, largely based upon a warn-on-detection approach using National Weather Service (NWS) Doppler radars, is reaching a plateau and further increases in lead time will be difficult to obtain. A new approach is needed to extend effective lead time. This will involve probabilistic hazard guidance provided by an ensemble of forecasts from convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models.

Warn-on-Forecast Fact Sheet, a brief overview of the WoF project, in layperson's language (.pdf, 1.4 MB)

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Bite-Sized Science: Warn on Forecast will help forecasters issue hazardous weather notifications out to an hour in advance. Watch on YouTube