Bite-Sized Science: Warn On Forecast
Warn-on-Forecast is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research program tasked to increase tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warning lead times. Increasing the lead time and accuracy for hazardous weather and water warnings and forecasts, in order to reduce loss of life, injury, and damage to the economy, is one of the strategic goals of NOAA. Trends in yearly-averaged tornado warning lead time suggest that the present weather warning process, largely based upon a warn-on-detection approach using National Weather Service (NWS) Doppler radars, is reaching a plateau and further increases in lead time will be difficult to obtain. A new approach is needed to extend warning lead time in which probabilistic hazard guidance is provided by an ensemble of forecasts from convection-resolving numerical weather prediction models.
This video can also be found on the NOAA Weather Partners YouTube Channel.