Derechos & Mesoscale Convective Systems
Review of Research by Mike Coniglio
This work examines environments of quasi-linear MCSs and finds variables that discriminate between mature and dissipating MCSs, and "slow" versus "fast" moving MCSs. It also describes the development of a forecasting tool based on logistic regression. This is currently in the review process at Weather and Forecasting.
This work examines the role of upper-level shear on the structure and maintenance of simulated convective systems. It's not just about the low-level shear!
This work examines the effects of changing the criteria of identifying derechos on the interpretation of the underlying climatological distribution. Some color version of the figures can be found at the climatological page. I have compiled a large data set of derecho events compiled from the years of 1980-2001 (here's a list of the events).
This work examines The variability of large-scale flow-patterns and physical forcing mechanisms associated with the initial to early-mature stages of the systems and parameter distributions among a set of observed proximity soundings and how these environments compare to conclusions made from past, idealized numerical simulations of DCSs.
This paper summarizes the derecho research related to my M.S. degree. In a nutshell, I simulated a progressive derecho using the MM5 modeling system with an initial condition derived from a composite analysis. I then compared the behavior of the convective line to that of past idealized simulations that used similar initial kinematic environments.
Here's a presentation that
I gave at
Here's the powerpoint presentation I gave at the BAMEX forecasters workshop in March 2003.
ABOUT DERECHOS page developed by Bob Johns and Jeff Evans of SPC.
Evans and Doswell 2001 - they examined derecho environments using proximity soundings.
Burke and Schultz 2004 An examination of cold-season bow echoes to appear in December 2004 Weather and Forecasting.
BAMEX field operations. Includes data from most of May-July of 2003.
As a National Research Council Postdoctoral Research Associate working with Dr. Harold Brooks at NSSL, I am currently developing a data set of warm-season MCS events from the past seven years using the 2-km and 4-km NEXRAD reflectivity composites. The focus will be on the discrimination of Quasi-Stationary MCS (QSMCS) environments from fast-forward propagating MCS (FPMCS) environments and on the probability distribution functions of environmental parameters among the spectrum of MCS types. Given time, I plan on looking at the surface features of a handful of QSMCS and FPMCS using the Oklahoma Mesonet data. Stay tuned for results!
More to come soon. Thanks for stopping by.
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