NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Real Time MCS Forecasting Products

Researchers from NSSL and SPC have developed two parameters to aid in the forecasting of MCSs:

1) MCS Maintenance Probability (MMP)

2) Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP).

Plots of the MMP and DCP are based on output from the operational RUC 40 km grid.

Plots for Current Day (updated at ~ t₀ + 80 min):

REAL_TIME PLOTS HAVE RESUMED FOR 2009

0000Z		0300Z		0600Z		0900Z
MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP
F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00
F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03
F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06
F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09
F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12
1200Z		1500Z		1800Z		2100Z
MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP	MMP	DCP
F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00	F00
F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03	F03
F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06	F06
F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09	F09
F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12	F12

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