Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP)
The DCP was developed to
identify environments considered favorable for cold pool ÒdrivenÓ wind events
through four primary mechanisms: 1) Cold pool production [DCAPE], 2) Ability to
sustain strong storms along the leading edge of gust front [MUCAPE], 3)
Organization potential for any ensuing convection [0-6 km shear], and 4)
Sufficient flow within the ambient environment to favor development along downstream
portion of the gust front [0-6 km mean wind]. Normalized values were developed
for each parameter using the 51 observed proximity soundings near "Weak Forcing"
derechos, which were compared to values from 31 proxy soundings from WF non-derecho
MCSs. It was found that DCAPE > 980 J/Kg and MUCAPE > 2000 K/kg were
common (25th percentile), while sfc-6 km shear > 20 kt and sfc-6 km mean
wind > 16 kt were uncommon (75th percentile) in the non-derecho dataset.
Though the Evans
and Doswell (2001) dataset suggests the two kinematic parameters alone
could be used to discriminate the derechos from non-derecho cases, it would be
necessary to assume favorable thermodynamics exist. In order to remove this
assumption, all four parameters were collected into a single composite
parameter as follows:
DCP = (DCAPE/980) * (MUCAPE/2000)
* (0-6 shear/20 kt) * (0-6 mean wind/16 kt)
The ability of the DCP to
discriminate between non-derecho and derecho MCSs can be inferred from the
figure below, which shows complete separation of the interquartile ranges (25th
– 75th percentiles) of the DCP between the non-derecho and derecho MCS
data sets.
For more information, see the complete 2005
Summer Program Plan and/or Evans
and Doswell (2001).