Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Verification v. Ensemble Inconsistency

• COMMAS runs terminated at 2 hrs ? longest modeled cell lifetime is 90 min
  
• Observed lifetimes have no natural constraint
  
• But…
  
• Observed cell lifetimes never less that 2 volume scans
  
• Model cell lifetimes can be as short as 1 min.
  
• What to do?
  
• Truncate observed cell lifetime to 90 min
  
• If modeled cell lifetime is less than 6 min, set to zero.
  
• If modeled cell lifetime is at least 6 min, set it to the length of 2 volume scans
  
  

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