Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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Verification Data

• Derived from Level II Archive data
  
• Cells must be within 30-125 km
  
• SCIT (modified) used to track individual cells
  
  • Provides observed reflectivity time series for each cell
    
• SCIT has 5% error rate
  
• Tracks manually edited to remove obvious errors
  

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