Adjusting Tornado Damage by Era
(Updated 30 March 2000)
Send comments to Harold Brooks
Through time, tornado damage values have increased in the United States.
This is not because tornadoes have become more violent, but because of
inflation and the accumulation of weath. Here are a couple of ways
of looking at the most damaging tornadoes accounting for the these changes.
The first takes into account only inflation (inflation
adjusted damage) and the second also includes an adjustment for the
accumulation of possessions (wealth adjusted damage).
U.S. Tornadoes Ranked by Inflation Adjusted Damage
The costs of tornado damage has increased over the years at the same time
as inflation has increased prices. I've used the Consumer Price Index
to adjust the damage from tornadoes to constant (1997) dollars. The
table below shows the 15 most damaging tornadoes since 1860 after adjusting
for inflation.
|
Rank
|
Date
|
Location
|
Dead
|
Raw
Damage
($M)
|
Inflation
Adjusted
Damage
|
|
1
|
3-May-1999
|
Oklahoma City, OK
|
36
|
1000
|
963.4
|
|
2
|
10-Apr-1979
|
WichitaFalls, TX
|
45
|
400
|
884.0
|
|
3
|
6-May-1975
|
Omaha, NE
|
3
|
250
|
745.0
|
|
4
|
11-May-1970
|
Lubbock, TX
|
28
|
135
|
558.0
|
|
5
|
8-Jun-1966
|
Topeka, KS
|
16
|
100
|
494.0
|
|
6
|
3-Oct-1979
|
Windsor Locks, CT
|
3
|
200
|
442.0
|
|
7
|
27-May-1896
|
St. Louis, MO-E. St. Louis, IL
|
255
|
12
|
380.0
|
|
8
|
3-Apr-1974
|
Xenia, OH
|
34
|
100
|
325.0
|
|
9
|
31-Mar-1973
|
Conyers, GA
|
1
|
89
|
321.0
|
|
10
|
9-Jun-1953
|
Worcester, MA
|
94
|
52
|
311.0
|
|
11
|
3-Jun-1980
|
GrandIsland, NE
|
4
|
140
|
273.0
|
|
12
|
11-May-1953
|
Waco, TX
|
114
|
41
|
246.0
|
|
13
|
3-Dec-1978
|
BossierCity, LA
|
2
|
100
|
246.0
|
|
14
|
20-May-1957
|
RuskinHeights, MO
|
44
|
40
|
228.0
|
|
15T
|
29-Sep-1927
|
St.Louis, MO
|
79
|
22
|
203.0
|
|
15T
|
28-Aug-1990
|
Plainfield, IL
|
29
|
165
|
203.0
|
U.S. Tornadoes Ranked by Wealth Adjusted Damage
We can also adjust damage across eras by taking into account the total
wealth of the country. It increases not only because of inflation,
but also because people tend to have more possessions as time goes on.
This is slightly more complicated than the inflation adjustment, so it's
probably a good idea to check out the methodology.
Four values are given for tornadoes before 1925 and after 1997, the period
when good data have been published. Those values represent
-
only accounting for changes due to inflation (under Wealth Adjusted Damage
column)
-
using a conservative model of changes to "possessions" (Est. 2)
-
using a moderate model of changes to "possessions" (Est. 3)
-
using a liberal model of changes to "possessions" (Est. 4)
Est. 3 is probably the most accurate, but I've chosen to do the basic comparsions
via the most conservative (inflation-only) model in order to lessen exaggeration
associated with the modelling.
All dollar values are given in millions of 1997 dollars. The total wealth
of the US in 1997 was approximately $25,000,000,000. As a comparison,
if we take the most likely value of the 1896 Saint Louis damage as $3574
million dollars, that damage represented 0.014% of the total wealth of
the United States.
|
Rank
|
Date
|
Location
|
Dead
|
Raw
Damage
($M)
|
Wealth
Adjusted
Damage
|
Est. 2
(10%ile)
|
Est. 3
(25th%)
|
Est. 4
(50%ile)
|
|
1
|
27-May-1896
|
St. Louis, MO - E. St. Louis, IL
|
255
|
12
|
2166.8
|
2739.8
|
3574.0
|
6377.8
|
|
2
|
29-Sep-1927
|
St. Louis, MO
|
79
|
22
|
1794.4
|
|
3
|
18-Mar-1925
|
Tri-State (MO-IL-IN)
|
695
|
16
|
1392.3
|
|
4
|
10-Apr-1979
|
Wichita Falls, TX
|
45
|
400
|
1140.7
|
|
5
|
9-Jun-1953
|
Worcester, MA
|
94
|
52
|
1140.3
|
|
6
|
6-May-1975
|
Omaha, NE
|
3
|
250
|
1126.8
|
|
7
|
8-Jun-1966
|
Topeka, KS
|
16
|
100
|
1126.1
|
|
8
|
6-Apr-1936
|
Gainesville, GA
|
203
|
13
|
1111.3
|
|
9
|
11-May-1970
|
Lubbock, TX
|
28
|
135
|
1080.8
|
|
10
|
28-Jun-1924
|
Lorain-Sandusky, OH
|
85
|
12
|
1070.7
|
1079.5
|
1089.5
|
1111.4
|
|
11
|
3-May-1999
|
Oklahoma City, OK
|
36
|
1000
|
963.4
|
933.5
|
915.2
|
875.4
|
|
12
|
11-May-1953
|
Waco, TX
|
114
|
41
|
899.1
|
|
13
|
23-Mar-1913
|
Omaha, NE
|
103
|
5
|
769.1
|
648.5
|
723.9
|
920.0
|
|
14
|
23-Jun-1944
|
Southwestern PA
|
30
|
15
|
696.6
|
|
15
|
20-May-1957
|
Ruskin Heights, MO
|
44
|
40
|
685.1
|