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NSSL/FRDD Rm 2234, 120 David L. Boren Boulevard, Norman, OK 73072

Research Interests

I am currently involved in research in:

  1. The evaluation of convection-allowing numerical model output for severe-weather forecasting applications
  2. Dynamics and characteristics of severe convective systems
  3. The development and testing of ensemble data assimilation systems for analyzing and forecasting severe convection (a.k.a. Warn-on-Forecast)

Professional History

I have a broad set of research interests which are focused on the NOAA Weather and Water strategic mission goal of improving weather forecasts and warning. I interact with operational forecasters both informally and formally as part of the NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) to stimulate and guide research associated with the needs of operational forecasters.

My original research interests in severe and unusual weather can be traced back to my childhood growing up in Western New York and experiencing the remarkable lake-effect snow storms that grace the area every winter. I experienced more lake-effect snow at the State University of New York College at Oswego where I obtained my undergraduate degree in 1997. I also craved to understand and experience the severe convective weather that frequents the central United States, so I felt very fortunate to be able to attend the University of Oklahoma for graduate school. I was also fortunate to be mentored by David Stensrud of NSSL as a master's student, who helped develop my interest in the numerical modeling and understanding of severe mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and derechos.

I continued my work on severe MCSs as a doctoral student at OU and obtained my Ph.D. in 2004 under Dr. Mike Richman of OU and David Stensrud at NSSL. I was also very fortunate to be able to interact with forecasters at the NOAA/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to help fulfill my enthusiasm for severe-weather forecasting. As a graduate student and then as a post-doctoral student at NSSL, I became very involved with the activities started by Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, and others at NSSL and SPC, dedicated to bridging the gap between research and operations, which I continue to be involved with today. I also became involved with the early testing and development of ensemble data assimilation and numerical modeling systems that form the basis of the NOAA "Warn-on-Forecast" initiative. In 2008, I was fortunate to became a scientist at NSSL to continue my enthusiasm for understanding severe convective weather and improving severe weather forecasting.

Current Research Interests and Associated Publications

Evaluation of convection-allowing models for severe-weather forecasting:

Coniglio, M. C., K. L. Elmore, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, and M. L. Weisman, 2009: Evaluation of WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting from the 2008 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, in press.

Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, M. C. Coniglio, and M. S. Wandishin, 2009: Toward improved convection-allowing ensembles: Model physics senstivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance with small ensemble membership. Wea. Forecasting, in press.

Schwartz, C. S., J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, M. Xue, D. R. Bright, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, J. J. Levit, and M. C. Coniglio, 2009: Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance: A second look at 2 vs. 4 km grid spacing. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

Dynamics and characteristics of severe mesoscale convective systems:

Engerer, N. A., D. J. Stensrud, and M. C. Coniglio, 2008: Surface characteristics of cold pools. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4839-4849.

Cohen, A. E., M. C. Coniglio, S. F. Corfidi, and S. J. Corfidi, 2007: Discrimination of mesoscale convective system environments using sounding observations. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 1045-1062.

Coniglio, M. C., H. E. Brooks, S. F. Corfidi, and S. J. Weiss, 2007: Forecasting the maintenance of quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 556-570.

Coniglio, M. C., D. J. Stensrud, and L. J. Wicker, 2006: Effects of upper-level wind shear on the structure and maintenance of strong quasi-linear convective systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 1231-1252.

Stensrud, D. J., M. C. Coniglio, R. Davies-Jones, and J. S. Evans, 2005: Comments on "'A theory for strong, long-lived squall lines' revisited". J. Atmos. Sci. 62, 2989-2996.

Davis, C. A., N. Atkins, D. Bartels, L. F. Bosart, M.C. Coniglio, and collaborators, 2004: The Bow-Echo and MCV experiment (BAMEX): Observations and opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1075-1093.

Coniglio, M. C., and D. J. Stensrud, 2004: Interpreting the climatology of derechos. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 595-605

Coniglio, M. C., D. J. Stensrud, and M. B. Richman, 2004: An observational study of derecho-producing convective systems. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 320-337.

Coniglio, M. C., and D. J. Stensrud, 2001: Simulation of a progressive derecho using composite initial conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1593-1616.

Testing of Ensemble Data Assimilation systems:

Stensrud D. J., N. Yussouf, D. C. Dowell, and M. C. Coniglio, 2009: Assimilating surface data into a mesoscale model ensemble: Cold pool analyses from spring 2007. Atmos. Res., in press.

Coniglio, M. C., D. C. Dowell, and L. J. Wicker, 2007: Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data: Analyses of a developing MCS. Extended Abstracts, 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Park City, UT, American Meteorological Society, 3B.3.