Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms or The Ensemble Heresies

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pdf Confidence Intervals

• Resample storm lifetimes, with replacement, 1000 times
• Create pdfs for each resample
• Find 2.5 percentile and 97.5 percentile at each x_O
• Plot these as the envelope containing the pdf with 95% confidence

Graphic shows 95% confidence interval for cell lifetime kernel density estimate.

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