*(Updated 7 November 1997)
*

Panofsky, H. A., and G. W. Brier, 1958:
*Some Applications of Statistics to Meteorology. * Pennsylvania
State University, University Park, 224 pp.

- A classic in the field, including a discussion of verification issues (Chapter IX). To my knowledge, it is now out of print, which is why the appearance of the book by Wilks in 1995 was so imporant to the field.

Wilks, Daniel S., 1995: *Statistical
Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. * Academic
Press, New York, 467 pp. (ISBN 0-120751865-3)

- Excellent discussion of verification issues (Chapter 7) and basic statistics important for verification. I really like this book a lot and recommend it to everyone. (My wife thought I was kidding at first when I said that it was what I wanted for my birthday, but she came through.) It's designed as a replacement for Panofsky and Brier and seems to hit the mark.

*Murphy, A. H., and R. W. Katz (Eds.),
1985: **Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the
Atmospheric Sciences* (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors),
Westview Press.

Katz, R. W., and A. H. Murphy (Eds.), 1997:
*Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts* (R.W. Katz and
A.H. Murphy, Editors), Cambridge University Press.

Many of the issues we face and measures we use in forecast verification date back many years or have been treated in papers that many meteorologists (particularly in the US) may have difficulty getting access to. I've defined "difficult" operationally here: they're not in our library here at NSSL, which is a reasonable, but not large, library. Here's a list of some of those papers of great signficance.

**Bleeker, W.**, 1946: The verification of weather
forecasts. *Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen*, Serie B, Deel 1,
No. 2, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 23 pp.

**Clayton, H. H.**, 1927: A method of verifying weather
forecasts. *Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **8**, 144-146.

**Clayton, H. H.**, 1934: Rating weather forecasts.
*Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc.*, **15**, 279-283.

**Cooke, W. E.**, 1906: Forecasts and verifications in
Western Australia. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **34**, 23-24.

**Clayton, H. H.**, 1889: Verification of weather forecasts.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**6**, 211-219.

**Clayton, H. H.**, 1891: Verification of weather forecasts.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**8**, 369-375.

**Curtis, G. E.**, 1887: Tornado predictions and their verification.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**4**, 68-74.

**Doolittle, M. H.**, 1885a: The verification of predictions.*Bull. Philos. Soc. Washington*,**7**, 122-127.

**Doolittle, M. H.**, 1885b: The verification of predictions.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**2**, 327 329.

**Doolittle, M. H.**, 1888: Association ratios.*Bull. Philos. Soc. Washington*,**10**, 83 87, 94-96.

**Finley, J. P.**, 1884: Tornado predictions.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**1**, 85-88.

**Gilbert, G. K.**, 1884: Finley's tornado predictions.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**1**, 166-172.

**Hazen, H. A.**, 1887: Verification of tornado predictions.*Amer. J. Sci.*, Series 3,**34**, 127-131.

**Hazen, H. A.,**1892: The verifcation of weather forecasts.*Amer. Meteor. J.*,**8**, 392 396.

**Köppen, W.**, 1884: Eine rationelle methode zur prüfung der wetterprognosen.*Meteor. Z.*,**1**, 397-404.

**Köppen, W.**, 1893: The best method of testing weather predictions. U. S. Weather Bureau Bull. 11, pp. 29-34.

**Peirce, C. S.**, 1884: The numerical measure of the success of predictions.*Science*,**4**, 453-454.

**Hanssen, A. W., and W. J. A. Kuipers**, 1965: On
the relationship between the frequency of rain and various
meteorological parameters. *Mededeelingen en Verhandelingen*,
No. 81, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 65 pp.

**Heidke, P.**, 1926: Berechung des erfolges und der
güte der windstärkvorhersagen im sturmwarnungsdienst.
*Geografika Annaler*, **8**, 301-349.

Journals

(Due to the volume of material that appears in journals, I do not
pretend that this is a complete list.)

Three journals contain a significant amount of material related to
verification:

**Weather and Forecasting**

- published by the
American
Meteorological Society.

- published by the
American
Meteorological Society.
**Meteorological Applications**

- published by the
Royal
Meteorological Society.

- published by the
Royal
Meteorological Society.
**International Journal of Forecasting**

- published by the International Institute of Forecasers. (Primarily non meteorological journal.)

Many of the articles in the following list are from a set of verification references assembled by Allan Murphy in June 1996. It was sent to me by Dan Wilks as part of the preparation for the Short Course on Forecast Verification at tbe AMS annual meeting in 1998.

**Bieringer, P., and P. S. Ray**, 1996: A comparison
of tornado warning lead times with and without NEXRAD Doppler radar.
*Wea. Forecasting*, **11**, 41-46.

**Blattenberger, G., and F. Lad**, 1985: Separating the Brier
score into calibration and refinement components: A graphical
exposition. *The American Statistician*, **39**, 26-32.

**Brier, G. W.**, 1950: Verification of forecasts
expressed in terms of probability. *Mon. Wea. Rev.*, **78**,
1-3.

**Briggs, W.M., and R.A. Levine**, 1996: Wavelets and field
forecast verification. *Monthly Weather Review*, **125**,
1329-1341.

**Brooks, H.E., and C.A. Doswell**, 1996: A comparison between
measures-oriented and distributions-oriented verification methods in
forecast verification. *Weather and Forecasting*, **11**,
288-303.
(**Web
version** with
**raw
data**.)

**Clemen, R.T., A.H. Murphy, and R.L. Winkler**, 1995:
Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing and
combining. *International Journal of Forecasting*, **11**,
133-146.

**DeGroot, M.H., and S.E. Fienberg**, 1983: The comparison and
evaluation of forecasters. *The Statistician*, **32**, 14-22.

**Doswell, C. A., R. Davies-Jones, and D. L.
Keller**, 1990: On summary measures of skill in rare event
forecasting based on contingency tables. *Wea. Forecasting*,
**5**, 576-585.

**Ehrendorfer, M., and A.H. Murphy**, 1988: Comparative
evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality, and
accuracy. *Monthly Weather Review*, **116**, 1757-1770.

**Gringorten, I. I.**, 1967: Verification to
determine and measure forecasting skill. *J. Appl. Meteor.*,
**6**, 742-747.

**Krzysztofowicz, R.**, 1992: Bayesian correlation score: A
utilitarian measure of forecast skill. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**120**, 208-219.

**Livezey, R.E.**, 1995: Evaluation of forecasts. *Analysis
of Climate Variability* (H. von Storch and A. Navarra, Editors).
Berlin, Germany, Springer-Verlag, pp. 177-196.

**Marshall, K.T., and R.M. Oliver**, 1995: *Decision Making
and Forecasting*. New York, NY, McGraw-Hill, 407 pp. See Chapter 8
(pp. 303-341).

**Mielke, P.W.**, 1991: The application of multivariate
permutation methods based on distance functions in the earth
sciences. *Earth Sciences Review*, **31**, 55-71.

**Murphy, A.H.**, 1991: Forecast verification: Its complexity
and dimensionality. *Monthly Weather Review,* **119**,
1590-1601.

**Murphy, A.H.**, 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on
the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **8**, 281-293.

**Murphy, A.H.**, 1996: General decompositions of MSE-based
skill scores: Measures of some basic aspects of forecast quality.
*Monthly Weather Review*, **124** , 2353-2369.

**Murphy, A.H.**, 1997: Forecast verification. *Economic
Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts* (R.W. Katz and A.H.
Murphy, Editors). Cambridge, U.K., Cambridge University Press, See
Chapter 7 (pp. 19-74).

**Murphy, A.H., B.G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen,** 1989: Diagnostic
verification of temperature forecasts. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **4**, 485-501.

**Murphy, A.H.,** **and H. Daan**, 1985: Forecast
evaluation. *Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the
Atmospheric Sciences* (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors).
Boulder, CO, Westview Press, pp. 379-437.

**Murphy, A.H., and E.S. Epstein**, 1989: Skill scores and
correlation coefficients in model verification. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **117**, 572-581.

**Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler**, 1987: A general framework
for forecast verification. *Monthly Weather Review*, **115**,
1330-1338.

**Murphy, A.H., and R.L. Winkler**, 1992: Diagnostic
verification of probability forecasts. *International Journal of
Forecasting*, **7**, 435-455.

**Potts, J.M., C.K. Folland, I.T. Jolliffe, and D. Sexton**,
1996: Revised "LEPS" scores for assessing climate model simulations
and long-range forecasts. *Journal of Climate*, **9**, 34-53.

**Roebber, P. J., and L. F. Bosart**, 1996: The
contributions of education and experience to forecast skill. *Wea.
Forecasting*, **11**, 21-40.

**Schervish, M.J.**, 1989: A general method for comparing
probability assessors. *Annals of Statistics*, **17**,
1856-1879.

**Stanski, H.R., L.J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows**, 1989: Survey
of common verification methods in meteorology. Geneva, Switzerland,
World Meteorological Organization, World Weather Watch Report No. 8
(TD No. 358), 115 pp.

**Stensrud, D. J., and J. A. Skindlov**, 1996:
Gridpoint predictions of high temperature from a mesoscale model.
*Wea. Forecasting*, **11**, 103-110.

**Tremblay, A., S. G. Cober, A. Glazer, G. Isaac, and J.
Mailhot**, 1996: An intercomparison of mesoscale forecasts of
aircraft icing using SSM/I retrievals. *Wea. Forecasting*,
**11**, 66-77.

**Watterson, I.G.**, 1996: Non-dimensional measures of climate
model performance. *International Journal of Climatology*,
**16**, 379-391.

**Wilks, D.S.**, 1995: *Statistical Methods in the
Atmospheric Sciences*. San Diego, CA, Academic Press, 464 pp. See
Chapter 7 (pp. 233-283).

**Winkler, R.L.**, 1994: Evaluating probabilities: Asymmetric
scoring rules. *Management Science*, **40**, 1395-1405.

**Winkler, R.L.**, 1996: Scoring rules and the evaluation of
probabilities (with discussion). *Test*, **5**, in press.

**Yates, J.F.**, 1994: Subjective probability accuracy
analysis. *Subjective Probability* (G. Wright and P. Ayton,
Editors). Chichester, U.K., Wiley, pp. 381-410.

(Due to the volume of material that appears at conferences, I do not pretend that this is a complete list.)

The two conferences of the American Meteorological Society that feature the most work on forecast verification are:

**Probability and Statistics**

**Weather Analysis and Forecasting**(sometimes called**Weather Forecasting and Analysis**)

Going through back issues of preprint volumes for these conferences
will provide a number of articles.

**Brown, B. G., and A. H. Murphy**, 1996:
Verification of aircraft icing forecasts: The use of standard
measures and meteorological covariates. *Preprints*, 13th Conf.
on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
251-252.

**Murphy, A. H., and D. S. Wilks**, 1996: Statistical
models in forecast verification: A case study of precipitation
probability forecasts. *Preprints*, 13th Conf. on Probability
and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco, 218-223.

**Persson, A.**, 1996: Forecast error and inconsistency
in medium range weather prediction. *Preprints*, 13th Conf. on
Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
253-259.

**Reap, R. M.**, 1996: Probability forecasts of
clear-air-turbulence for the contiguous U. S. *Preprints*, 13th
Conf. on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San
Francisco, 66-71.

**Verret, R., G. Babin, and R. Parent**, 1996: A measure
of the value added by the manual forecasts upon the objective
statistical weather element forecasts. *Preprints*, 13th Conf.
on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., San Francisco,
198-203.

This list came from Dan Wilks. By my count, Allan Murphy was an author on 124 formal articles before his death in August 1997. At the time of his death, two additional articles were in review and he had written a substantial portion of a third, which will be completed and submitted.

1.) A note on the attributes of probabilistic predictions and the
probability score. *Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **4**,
297-299, 1965. (E.S. Epstein and A.H. Murphy)

2.) Verification of probabilistic predictions: A brief review.
*Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **6**, 748-755, 1967. (A.H.
Murphy and E.S. Epstein)

3.) A note on probability forecast and "hedging". *Journal of
Applied Meteorology*, **6**, 1002-1004, 1967. (A.H. Murphy and
E.S. Epstein)

4.) "Good" probability assessors. *Journal of Applied
Meteorology*, **7**, 751-758, 1968. (R.L. Winkler and A.H.
Murphy)

5.) On the ranked probability score. *Journal of Applied
Meteorology*, **8**, 988-989, 1969.

6.) The ranked probability score and the probability score: A
comparison. *Monthly Weather Review*, **98**, 917-924, 1970.

7.) Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation.*
Acta Psychologica*, **34**, 273-286, 1970. (A.H. Murphy and
R.L. Winkler)

8.) A note on the ranked probability score. *Journal of Applied
Meteorology*, **10**, 155-156, 1971.

9.) Second-order probabilities and strictly proper scoring rules.
*Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **10**, 177-179, 1971.
(A.H. Murphy and C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein)

10.) Scalar and vector partitions of the probability score: Part
I. Two-state situation. *Journal of Applied Meteorology*,
**11**, 273-282, 1972.

11.) Scalar and vector partitions of the ranked probability score.
*Monthly Weather Review*, **100**, 701-708, 1972.

12.) Scalar and vector partition of the probability score: Part
II. N-state situation. *Journal of Applied Meteorology*,
**11**, 1183-1192, 1972.

13.) Hedging and skill scores for probability forecasts.
*Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **12**, 215-223, 1973.

14.) A new vector partition of the probability score. *Journal
of Applied Meteorology*, **12**, 595-600, 1973.

15.) A sample skill score for probability forecasts. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **102**, 48-55, 1974.

16.) A geometrical framework for the ranked probability score.
*Monthly Weather Review*, **103**, 16-20, 1975. (A.H. Murphy
and C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein)

17.) Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of
precipitation and temperature. *Applied Statistics*, **26**,
41-47, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

18.) The family of quadratic scoring rules. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **106**, 917-924, 1978. (C.-A.S. Stael von Holstein
and A.H. Murphy)

19.) On the evaluation of point precipitation probability
forecasts in terms of areal coverage. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**106**, 1680-1686, 1978.

20.) Forecast evaluation. *Probability, Statistics, and Decision
Making in the Atmospheric Sciences* (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz,
Editors), Westview Press, 379-437, 1985. (A.H. Murphy and H. Daan)

21.) Comparative evaluation of categorical and probabilistic
forecasts: Two alternatives to the traditional approach. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **114**, 245-249, 1986.

22.) The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing
the quality of probability forecasts. *International Journal of
Forecasting*, **2**, 285-293, 1986. (W.-R. Hsu and A.H. Murphy)

23.) Trends in the quality of National Weather Service forecasts,
1986. *Weather and Forecasting*, **1**, 42-55. (A.H. Murphy
and T.E. Sabin)

24.) A new decomposition of the Brier score: Formulation and
interpretation. *Monthly Weather Review,* **114**, 2671-2673,
1986.

25.) A general framework for forecast verification. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **115**, 1330-1338, 1987. (A.H. Murphy and
R.L. Winkler)

26.) Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems:
Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**116**, 1757-1770, 1988. (M. Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)

27.) Skill scores based on the mean square error and their
relationships to the correlation coefficient. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **116**, 2417-2424, 1988.

28.) Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model
verification. *Monthly Weather Review*, **117**, 572-581,
1989. (A.H. Murphy and E.S. Epstein)

29.) Diagnostic verification of temperature forecasts. *Weather
and Forecasting*, **4**, 485-501, 1989. (A.H. Murphy, B.G.
Brown, and Y.-S. Chen)

30.) Comparison of objective and subjective precipitation
probability forecasts: The sufficiency relation. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **118**, 1783-1792, 1990. (A.H. Murphy and Q. Ye)

31.) Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality.
*Monthly Weather Review*, **119**, 1590-1601, 1991.

32.) Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **120**, 361-370, 1992. (L.S. Gandin and A.H.
Murphy)

33.) Evaluation of prototypical climate forecasts: The sufficiency
relation. *Journal of Climate*, **5**, 876-887, 1992. (M.
Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)

34.) Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts.
*International Journal of Forecasting*, **7**, 435-455, 1992.
(A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

35.) Climatology, persistence, and their linear combination as
standards of reference in skill scores, 1992. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **7**, 692-698.

36.) What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness
in weather forecasting. *Weather and Forecasting*, **8**,
281-293, 1993.

37.) Evaluation of forecasts. *Predictability and Nonlinear
Modeling in Natural Sciences and Economics* (J. Grasman and G. van
Straten, Editors), Kluwer Academic Publishers, 11-28, 1994. (A.H.
Murphy and M. Ehrendorfer)

38.) A coherent method of stratification within a general
framework for forecast verification. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**123**, 1582-1588, 1995.

39.) The coefficients of correlation and determination as measures
of performance in forecast verification. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **10**, 681-688, 1995.

40.) The Finley affair: A signal event in the history of forecast
verification. *Weather and Forecasting*, **11**, 3-20, 1996.

41.) General decompositions of MSE-based skill scores: Measures
of some basic aspects of forecasts quality. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **124**, 2353-2369, 1996.

42.) Forecast verification, *Economic Value of Weather and
Climate Forecasts* (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy, Editors), Cambridge
University Press, 19-74, 1997.

43.) A case study of the use of statistical models in forecast
verification: Precipitation probability forecasts. *Weather and
Forecasting*, under review, 1997. (A.H. Murphy and D.S. Wilks)

1.) The uncertainty of uncertainty. *Proceedings of the Fourth
International Conference on Operational Research*,
Wiley-Interscience, 906-913, 1969. (P.C. Fishburn and A.H. Murphy)

2.) Forecasters and probability forecasts: The responses to a
questionnaire. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **52**, 158-165, 1971. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

3.) Forecasters and probability forecasts: Some current problems.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, **52**,
239-247, 1971. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

4.) Credible interval temperature forecasts. *Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society*, **53**, 966-970, 1972. (C.R.
Peterson, K.J. Snapper, and A.H. Murphy)

5.) Information aggregation in probabilistic prediction. *IEEE
Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics*, SMC-3, 154-160,
1973. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)

6.) Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology:
Some preliminary results. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **55**, 1206-1216, 1974. (A.H. Murphy and R.L.
Winkler)

7.) Credible interval temperature forecasts: Some experimental
results. *Monthly Weather Review*, **102**, 784-794, 1974.
(A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

8.) Probability forecasts: A survey of National Weather Service
forecasters. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Societ*y,
**55**, 1449-1453, 1974. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

9.) Expressing the uncertainty in weather forecasts. *The
Statistician*, **24**, 69-71, 1975.

10.) Subjective probability forecasting: Some real world
experiments. *Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making*
(D. Wendt and C. Vlek, Editors), D. Reidel Publishing Company,
177-198, 1975. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

11.) Point and area precipitation probability forecasts: Some
experimental results. *Monthly Weather Review*, **104**,
86-95, 1976. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)

12.) Experimental point and area precipitation probability
forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects, 1977.
*Atmosphere*, **15**, 61-78. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

13.) Can weather forecasters formulate reliable probability
forecasts of precipitation and temperature? *National Weather
Digest*, **2**, Number 2, 2-9, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L.
Winkler)

14.) The use of credible intervals in temperature forecasting:
Some experimental results. *Decision Making and Change in Human
Affairs* (H. Jungermann and G. De Zeeuw, Editors), D. Reidel
Publishing Company, 45-56, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

15.) On the misinterpretation of precipitation probability
forecasts. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*,
**58**, 1297-1299, 1977.

16.) Hedging and the mode of expression of weather forecasts.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, **59**,
371-373, 1978.

17.) Probabilistic temperature forecasts: The case of an
operational program. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **60**, 12-19, 1979. (A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

18.) The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum
temperatures. *Meteorological Magazine*, **108**, 317-329,
1979. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)

19.) Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, **61**,
695-701, 1980. (A.H. Murphy, S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R.L.
Winkler)

20.) Subjective quantification of uncertainty in weather forecasts
in the United States. *Meteorologische Rundschau*, **34**,
65-77, 1981.

21.) User requirements for very-short-range weather forecasts.
*Nowcasting* (K. Browning, Editor), Academic Press, 3-15, 1982.
(A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)

22.) Subjective probability forecasting in The Netherlands: Some
operational and experimental results, 1982. *Meteorologische
Rundschau*, **35**, 99-112. (H. Daan and A.H. Murphy)

23.) Subjective probabilistic tornado forecasts: Some experimental
results, 1982. *Monthly Weather Review*, **110**, 1288-1297.
(A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

24.) Forecast terminology: Composition and interpretation of
public weather forecasts. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **64**, 13-22, 1983. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)

25.) Forecaster training: Overview of a panel discussion.
*Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*, **64**,
371-375, 1983. (R.A. Maddox, L.W. Snellman, and A.H. Murphy)

26.) Use of an analogue procedure to formulate objective
probabilistic temperature forecasts in The Netherlands. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **111**, 2244-2254, 1983. (S. Kruizinga and
A.H. Murphy)

27.) Interpretation of some terms and phrases in public weather
forecasts. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*,
**64**, 1283-1289, 1983. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)

28.) Impacts of feedback and experience on the quality of
subjective probability forecasts: Comparison of results from the
first and second years of the Zierikzee experiment. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **112**, 413-423, 1984. (A.H. Murphy and H.
Daan)

29.) Time series models to simulate and forecast wind speed and
wind power. *Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology*,
**23**, 1184-1195, 1984. (B.G. Brown, R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy)

30.) A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather
forecasts in the United States. *Journal of Forecasting*,
**3**, 369-393, 1984. (A.H. Murphy and B.G. Brown)

31.) Probability forecasting in meteorology. *Journal of the
American Statistical Association*, **79**, 489-500, 1984. (A.H.
Murphy and R.L. Winkler)

32.) Probabilistic weather forecasting. *Probability,
Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences* (A.H.
Murphy and R.W. Katz, Editors), Westview Press, 337-377, 1985.

33.) A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather
forecasts in the United States. *Behavioral Decision Making* (G.
Wright, Editor), Plenum Press, 329-359, 1985. (A.H. Murphy and B.G.
Brown)

34.) Public interpretation and understanding of forecast
terminology: Some results of a newspaper survey in Seattle,
Washington. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society*,
**66**, 810-819, 1985. (J.C. Curtis and A.H. Murphy)

35.) The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative
precipitation forecasts: Some experimental results. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **113**, 2075-2089, 1985. (A.H. Murphy, W.-R.
Hsu, R.L. Winkler, and D.S. Wilks)

36.) Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts:
Statistical analysis of some interrelationships. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **1**, 56-65, 1986. (R.T. Clemen and A.H. Murphy)

37.) Probability forecasting in Sweden: Some results of
experimental and operational programs at the Swedish Meteorological
and Hydrological Institute. *Weather and Forecasting*, **1**,
136-154, 1986. (K.-I Ivarsson, R. Joelsson, E. Liljas, and A.H.
Murphy)

38.) Objective and subjective precipitation probability forecasts:
Some methods for improving forecast quality. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **1**, 213-218, 1986. (R.T. Clemen and A.H.
Murphy)

39.) Quantification of uncertainty in fire weather forecasts: Some
results of operational and experimental forecasting programs, 1987.
*Weather and Forecasting*, **2**, 190-205. (B.G. Brown and
A.H. Murphy)

40.) Statistical analysis of interrelationships between objective
and subjective temperature forecasts. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**116**, 2121-2131, 1988. (A.H. Murphy, Y.-S. Chen, and R.T.
Clemen)

41.) Probability, statistics, and weather forecasting.
*Idojaras*, **93**, 84-99, 1989.

42.) Probabilities, odds, and forecasts of rare events. *Weather
and Forecasting*, **6**, 302-307, 1991.

43.) Anders Angstrom and his early papers on probability
forecasting and the use/value of weather forecasts. *Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society*, **75**, 1227-1236, 1994.
(E. Liljas and A.H. Murphy)

44.) Screening probability forecasts: Contrasts between choosing
and combining. *International Journal of Forecasting*,
**11**, 133-145, 1995. (R.T. Clemen, A.H. Murphy, and R.L.
Winkler)

45.) Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather.
*International Journal of Forecasting*, **12**, 57-71, 1996.
(B. Abramson, J. Brown, W. Edwards, A.H. Murphy and R.L. Winkler).

46.) Improving forecasting performance by combining forecasts: The
example of road-surface temperature forecasts. *Meteorological
Applications*, **3**, 257-265, 1996. (B.G. Brown and A.H.
Murphy)

47.) On the early history of probability forecasts: Some
extensions and clarifications. *Weather and Forecasting*, under
review, 1997.

1.) A note on the utility of probabilistic predictions and the
probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation.
*Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **5**, 534-537. 1966.

2.) Sensitivity of decisions to probability estimation errors: A
re-examination. *Operations Research*, **16**, 254-267, 1968.
(P.C. Fishburn, A.H. Murphy, and H.H. Isaacs)

3.) Measures of the utility of probabilistic predictions in
cost-loss ratio decision situations in which knowledge of the
cost-loss ratios is incomplete. *Journal of Applied
Meteorology*, **8**, 863-873, 1969.

4.) On expected-utility measures in cost-loss ratio decision
situations. *Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **8**, 989-901,
1969.

5.) Nonlinear utility and the probability score. *Journal of
Applied Meteorology*, **9**, 143-148, 1970. (R.L. Winkler and
A.H. Murphy)

6.) Ordinal relationships between measures of the "accuracy" and
"value" of probability forecasts: Preliminary results. *Tellus*,
**24**, 531-542, 1972.

7.) Decision-making models in the cost-loss ratio situation and
measures of the value of probability forecasts. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **104**, 1058-1065, 1976.

8.) The value of climatological, categorical and probabilistic
forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **105**, 803-816, 1977.

9.) On the nature of the nonexistence of ordinal relationships
between measures of the accuracy and value of probability forecasts:
An example.* Journal of Applied Meteorology*, **16**,
1015-1021, 1977. (A.H. Murphy and J.C. Thompson)

10.) Potential economic and social value of short-range forecasts
of Boulder windstorms. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **59**, 29-44, 1978. (W.R. Bergen and A.H. Murphy)

11.) Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: A
dynamic decision-making approach. *Journal of Applied
Meteorology*, **21**, 518-531, 1982. (R.W. Katz, A.H. Murphy,
and R.L. Winkler)

12.) The value of climate information: A decision-analytic
approach. *Journal of Climatology*, **3**, 187-197, 1983.
(R.L. Winkler, and A.H. Murphy, and R.W. Katz)

13.) Value of weather information: A descriptive study of the
fruit-frost problem. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **65**, 126-137, 1984. (T.R. Stewart, R.W. Katz, and
A.H. Murphy)

14.) Decision analysis. *Probability, Statistics, and Decision
Making in the Atmospheric Sciences* (A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz,
Editors), Westview Press, 493-524, 1985. (R. L. Winkler and A.H.
Murphy)

15.) Decision making and the value of forecasts in a generalized
model of the cost-loss ratio situation. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **113**, 362-369, 1985.

16.) Repetitive decision making and the value of forecasts in the
cost-loss ratio situation: A dynamic model. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **113**, 801-813, 1985. (A.H. Murphy, R.W. Katz, R.L.
Winkler, and W.-R. Hsu)

17.) The value of seasonal precipitation forecasts in a
haying/pasturing problem in Western Oregon. *Monthly Weather
Review*, **113**, 1738-1745, 1985. (D.S. Wilks and A.H. Murphy)

18.) On the economic value of seasonal-precipitation forecasts:
The fallowing/planting problem. *Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society*, **67**, 833-841, 1986. (B.G. Brown,
R.W. Katz, and A.H. Murphy)

19.) A decision-analytic study of the joint value of seasonal
precipitation and temperature forecasts in a choice-of-crop problem.
*Atmosphere-Ocean*, **24**, 353-368, 1986. (D.S. Wilks, and
A.H. Murphy)

20.) Quality/value relationship for imperfect information in the
umbrella problem. *The American Statistician*, **41**,
187-189, 1987. (R.W. Katz andA.H. Murphy)

21.) Decision-analytic assessment of the economic value of weather
forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem. *Journal of
Forecasting*, **6**, 77-89, 1987. (R.W. Katz, and B.G. Brown,
and A.H. Murphy)

22.) On the relationship between the quality and value of
forecasts in the generalized cost-loss ratio situation. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **115**, 1534-1541, 1987. (Y.-S. Chen, M.
Ehrendorfer, and A.H. Murphy)

23.) On the relationship between the accuracy and value of
forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. *Weather and
Forecasting*, **2**, 243-251, 1987. (A.H. Murphy and M.
Ehrendorfer)

24.) Use and value of multiple-period forecasts in a dynamic model
of the cost-loss ratio situation. *Monthly Weather Review*,
**116**, 746-761, 1988. (E.S. Epstein and A.H. Murphy)

25.) The economic value of weather forecasts in wildfire
suppression mobilization decision. *Canadian Journal of Forest
Research*, **18**, 1641-1649, 1988. (B.G. Brown and A.H.
Murphy)

26.) The expected value of frequency calibration.
*Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes*,
**46**, 102-117, 1990. (R.T. Clemen and A.H. Murphy)

27.) Quality/value relationships for imperfect weather forecasts
in a prototype multistage decision-making model. *Journal of
Forecasting*, **9**, 75-86, 1990. (R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy)

28.) Optimal decision making and the value of information in a
time-dependent version of the cost-loss ratio situation. *Monthly
Weather Review*, **118**, 939-949, 1990. (A.H. Murphy and Q.
Ye)

29.) On the relationship between the quality and value of weather
and climate forecasting systems. *Idojaras*, **96**, 187-206,
1992. (M. Ehrendorfer and A.H. Murphy)

30.) Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: An
overview of methods, results, and issues. *Meteorological
Applications*, **1**, 69-73, 1994.

31.) Forecast value: Prototype decision-making models. *Economic
Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts* (R.W. Katz and A.H.
Murphy, Editors), Cambridge University Press, 183-217, 1997. (R.W.
Katz and A.H. Murphy)

1.) Engineering meteorology: Meteorology and heating load
requirements.*Meteorological Monographs*, 4 Number 22, 65-68,
1960.

2.) Probability and statistics in meteorology: A review of some
recent developments. *Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society*, **53**, 957-965, 1972. (P.R. Julian and A.H. Murphy)

3.) Experiments in the laboratory and the real world.
*Organizational Behavior and Human Performance*, **10**,
252-270, 1973. (R.L. Winkler and A.H. Murphy)

4.) On the generalizability of experimental results. *The
Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments *(C.-A.S.
Stael von Holstein, Editor), D. Reidel Publishing Company, 103-126,
1974. (R.L. Winkler andA.H. Murphy)

5.) Exploratory analysis of precipitation events with implications
for stochastic modeling. *Journal of Climate and Applied
Meteorology*, **24**, 57-67, 1985. (B.G. Brown, R.W. Katz, and
A.H. Murphy)

*
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