METR 5803 003

(Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis)


Harold Brooks

Office: NWC 4362 Phone: 325-6083 e-mail:

Spring 2011

Class meeting: TR at 11:30-12:45 in NWC 5930

Office hours: TBA

 Prerequisites: None. METR 4303 (Statistics) helpful, but not required

 Required text: None

 Supplemental materials: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences by D. S. Wilks (Academic Press, 1995), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts by R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997), Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences by A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz, Eds. (Westview Press, 1985), Making Hard Decisions by R. Clemen (Duxbury Press, 1993), journal articles.

 Major topics:

1. What is a good forecast?

a. Aspects and measurement of forecast "goodness"
b. Traditional and modern approaches to forecast evaluation
c. Conveying information about forecast goodness

2. Decision analysis

a. Making decisions with uncertain information
b. Utility functions
c. Identifying and educating users of forecast information

Grades: 1/3 Exams (1 mid-term, 1 non-comprehensive final)
1/3 Homework
1/3 Project

 Exam/Homework-20% credit given for "I don't know" as an answer`

 Late exam/homework-10% penalty per day

Persons with disabilities seeking reasonable accommodation should contact the instructor.

 Expectations of academic conduct are discussed at`