Narrator: Weather-related hazards - like tornadoes, lightning, and flooding - cause thousands
of injuries and hundreds of deaths every year.
NOAA's goal is to build a Weather-Ready Nation - where communities are prepared for
and respond appropriately to extreme weather events.
To reach this goal, forecasters at NOAA's National Weather Service will need the best
research and technology possible.
This includes an even greater understanding of dangerous weather,
the best tools for predicting hazards, and effective communication with the public.
These are the challenges that drive researchers at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory.
>>One of the key advancement for the NEXRAD network has been dual polarization. It provides
new information about what's happening in the storm and that information helps us to
better predict precipitation amounts more accurately as well as to have better
information about where hail is in a storm or even where a tornado may be located within
a storm.
>>Eventually, the NEXRAD network will need to be replaced.
A possible candidate is phased array radar - which could provide multiple functions with
a single antenna.
It's key feature is faster updates.
>>One of the reasons that that matters is that in some storm situations, things develop
very quickly - for example, a tornado.
Putting that kind of data in front of forecasters - we've determined that that key information
that has been missing matters because they have been able to issue warnings earlier in
a simulated operational environment.
>>National Weather Service forecasters rely on computer models of the atmosphere to help
them predict the weather.
In an effort to improve these models, the Lab brings together researchers and forecasters
in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed.
Is it possible to warn for hazardous weather such as tornadoes as much as an hour in advance?
Projects at the National Severe Storms Laboratory are aiming to answer this question.
Extra time is critical - especially for vulnerable populations or those responsible for large
groups of people.
Even before storm form, the Warn on Forecast project will give information
about potential hazards - conveying the risk level as storms approach.
The next step is making sure this risk information is clearly communicated to the public.
>>The National Severe Storms Laboratory is incorporating more social and behavioral science
in its research because the issuance of a warning about tornadoes and high winds and
hail is more than just the meteorology or the technology - it involves understanding
how people process the information to take the correct evasive action.
>>Clear and simple communication is one of the elements in the FACETs project.
Forecasters will be able to convey their confidence levels for weather hazards.
>>National Weather Service.
This is John.
How may I help you?
>>When the Weather Service issues a tornado warning now, it's for a very large area and
everybody in that area gets the same message.
What we are doing with facets is honing in on the area where the threat is greatest and
individuals will get their own bit of information every half-mile, updated every two minutes,
so that it becomes a personal forecast telling you exactly what your risk is at that location.
>>A tool for predicting lightning strikes is another project at the National Severe
Storms Lab.
By comparing historical data to current observations along with computer models, researchers are
exploring the possibility of pinpointing areas where lightning could occur as much as an
hour in advance.
>>We've seen forecasters really gravitate to this just because there's not a product
that they get in the field right now that does the kind of capability and emergency
managers have been particularly receptive because it can help them do their day-to-day
job better especially when they have to provide support for outdoor venues, events, and festivals.
>>Improving flash flood forecasts starts with the tools developed at the Lab.
The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system integrates water information including rainfall estimates.
These data are then fed into a computer model known as FLASH what
makes FLASH innovative is that it takes into account land surface characteristics and identifies
areas likely to flood.
>>So in other words if we have four inches in an hour, that might be a serious rainfall
amount in one location but not in another location.
Is this going to lead to a flash flooding situation or not that's what FLASH is intended
to do.
>>With better prediction models, forecasters can identify when and where flash flooding
is likely to occur - as well as how severe the impacts will be.
Then local emergency management can take action to aid the public and even evacuate during
these deadly situations.
Since 1964, the Lab has been dedicated to strengthening the ability of the National
Weather Service to observe, predict, and warn the public during severe weather events.
>>The result of all this activity has been that over the past 50 years of our existence
of the Laboratory, we have worked to save literally thousands of lives.
NOAA's goal of building a Weather-Ready Nation is a mission shared by the Lab and its researchers.
>>It allows scientists to come and work on scientific problems that are relevant to the
real world and have applications to society where we can make a difference in the science
that we do.