[Image shows better correlation in performance scores of observed precipitation with a smoothed model forecast, and a worse correlation in performance scores of observed precipitation with a detailed model forecast]
Notes:
Evaluating forecasts of fields of precipitation can be very difficult. In most traditional approaches, a smooth forecast, even if its aligned very badly (top), will get better scores than a detailed forecast, where the details are in the wrong places (bottom). Subjective evaluation may give a very different answer.