MCS probabilities generated with RUC2 grids

Plots for the 2005 SPC/NSSL summer program

 

See the Summer Program Plan for a description of these parameters

 

Extended Abstract for the 21st AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

 

The plots should be available about 2 hours and 5 minutes after the nominal time of the RUC forecast cycle.The parameters are generated at the analysis time and for the 3, 6, 9, and 12 h forecasts.After you click on the times below, scroll down to see the plots for each forecast cycle (Note:The probability contours arenít plotted if the RUC CAPE < 100 J/kg).Email your comments to Michael.Coniglio@noaa.gov.

 

 

Probability of MCS maintenance:

RUC forecast cycle:

00Z

03Z

06Z

09Z

12Z

15Z

18Z

21Z

 

Probability of MCS speed ≥ 18 m s-1:

RUC forecast cycle:

00Z

03Z

06Z

09Z

12Z

15Z

18Z

21Z