Class meeting: TR at 11:30-12:45 in NWC 5930
Office hours: TBA
Prerequisites: None. METR 4303 (Statistics) helpful, but not required
Required text: None
Supplemental materials: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric
Sciences by D. S. Wilks (Academic Press, 1995), Economic Value of
Weather and Climate Forecasts by R. W. Katz and A. H. Murphy, Eds.
(Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997), Probability, Statistics, and Decision
Making in the Atmospheric Sciences by A. H. Murphy and R. W. Katz,
Eds. (Westview Press, 1985), Making Hard Decisions by R. Clemen
(Duxbury Press, 1993), journal articles.
1. What is a good forecast?
a. Aspects and measurement of forecast "goodness"
b. Traditional and modern approaches to forecast evaluation
c. Conveying information about forecast goodness
2. Decision analysis
a. Making decisions with uncertain information
b. Utility functions
c. Identifying and educating users of forecast information
Grades: 1/3 Exams (1 mid-term, 1 non-comprehensive final)
Exam/Homework-20% credit given for "I don't know" as an answer`
Late exam/homework-10% penalty per day
Persons with disabilities seeking reasonable accommodation should contact the instructor.
Expectations of academic conduct are discussed at http://www.ou.edu/provost/integrity/.`