**Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis**

**METR 5803**

**Univ. of Oklahoma School of Meteorology**

*(Revised 18 January 2016)*

**Introduction**

**Background**

**Historical
perspective**

The
Farmer's Almanac problem

The Finley
Affair (Murphy, A. H., 1996: The Finley Affair: A signal event in the history
of forecast verification. *Wea. Forecasting*, **11**, 3-20.)

**Why
do verification?**

Evaluate
system

Identify
problems

Improve
forecasting without science

**Logistical
details**

**Projects**

**Statistical
sidebar**

**Probability**

**Important
notions**

Robustness

Resistance

Expected
value

**Summary
measures**

Location

Spread

Skewness

**Parametric
statistics**

Moments

Generating
functions

Mean,
variance, standard deviation, sample skewness coeff.

**Non-parametric**

Distributions-oriented

Quantiles

Median

IQD

MAD

Yule-Kendall
index (skewness)

**Measure
of association**

Pearson
product-moment correlation coefficient