Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis

METR 5803

Univ. of Oklahoma School of Meteorology

(Revised 17 January 2013)

Introduction

Background

Historical perspective

The Farmer's Almanac problem

The Finley Affair (Murphy, A. H., 1996: The Finley Affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 3-20.)

Why do verification?

Evaluate system

Identify problems

Improve forecasting without science

Logistical details

Projects

Statistical sidebar

Probability

Important notions

Robustness

Resistance

Expected value

Summary measures

Location

Spread

Skewness

Parametric statistics

Moments

Generating functions

Mean, variance, standard deviation, sample skewness coeff.

Non-parametric

Distributions-oriented

Quantiles

Median

IQD

MAD

Yule-Kendall index (skewness)

Measure of association

Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient