Forecast Evaluation and Decision Analysis

METR 5803

Univ. of Oklahoma School of Meteorology

(Revised 17 January 2013)

Introduction

Background

Historical perspective

         The Farmer's Almanac problem

         The Finley Affair (Murphy, A. H., 1996: The Finley Affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 3-20.)

Why do verification?

         Evaluate system

         Identify problems

         Improve forecasting without science

Logistical details

Projects

Statistical sidebar

Probability

Important notions

         Robustness

         Resistance

         Expected value

Summary measures

         Location

         Spread

         Skewness

Parametric statistics

         Moments

         Generating functions

         Mean, variance, standard deviation, sample skewness coeff.

Non-parametric

         Distributions-oriented

         Quantiles

         Median

         IQR

         MAD

         Yule-Kendall index (skewness)

Measures of association