References

(Starred references are particularly important for the course)

Books

  1. *Katz, R. W., and A. H. Murphy, 1997: Economic Value of Climate and Weather Forecasts. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK,
  2. *Murphy, A. H., and R. W. Katz, 1985: Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Westview Press, Boulder, CO,
  3. Sherden, W., 1998: The Fortune Sellers. Wiley, New York,
  4. Stanski, H. R., L. J. Wilson, and W. R. Burrows, 1989: Survey of Common Verification Methods in Meteorology. World Weather Watch Tech. Rep. No. 8, TD No. 358. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 114 pp.
  5. *Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, New York, 467 pp.

Journal Articles

  1. Brier, G. W., 1950: Verification of forecasts expressed in probabilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 1-3.
  2. Brown, B. G., R. W. Katz, and A. H. Murphy, 1986: On the value of seasonal-precipitation forecatss: The fallowing/planting problem. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 67, 833-841.
  3. Clayton, H. H., 1889: Verification of weather forecasts. Amer. Meteror. J., 6, 211-219.
  4. Clayton, H. H., 1934: Rating weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 15, 279-283.
  5. Clayton, H. H., 1941: Verifying weather forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 22, 314-315.
  6. Cooke, W. E., 1906: Forecasts and verifications in Western Australia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 34, 23-24.
  7. Daan, H., 1985: Sensitivity of verification scores to the classification of the predictand. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1384-1392.
  8. Doolittle, M. H., 1885: The verification of predictions. Phil. Soc. of Washington, Bull. 7., 122-27.
  9. Ehrendorfer, M., and A. H. Murphy, 1988: Comparative evaluation of weather forecasting systems: Sufficiency, quality, and accuracy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1757-1770.
  10. Epstein, E. S., 1969: A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories. J. Appl. Meteor., 8, 985-987.
  11. Finley, J. P., 1884: Tornado prediction. Amer. Meteor. J., 1, 85-88.
  12. Gandin, L. S., and A. H. Murphy, 1992: Equitable skill scores for categorical forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 361-370.
  13. Gerrity, J. P., Jr., 1992: A note on Gandin and Murphy's equitable skill score. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2709-2712.
  14. Gringorten, I. I., 1967: Verification to determine and measure forecasting skill. J. Appl. Meteor., 6, 742-747.
  15. Hanssen, A. W., and W. J. A. Kuipers, 1965: On the relationship between the frequency of rain and various meteorological parameters. Meded. Verh., 81, 2-15.
  16. Hazen, H. A., 1887: Verification of tornado predictions. Amer. J. Sci. 3rd ser., 34, 127-131.
  17. Heidke. P., 1926: Berechnung des Erfolges und der Güte der Windstärkevorhersagen im Sturmwarnungdienst. Geogr. Ann., 8, 310-349.
  18. Hsu, W.-R., and A. H. Murphy, 1986: The attributes diagram: A geometrical framework for assessing the quality of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting, 2, 285-293.
  19. Katz, R. W., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler, 1982: Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: A dynamic decision-making problem. J. Appl. Meteor., 21, 518-531.
  20. Krzysztofowicz, R., 1992: Bayesian correlation score: A utilitarian measure of forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 208-219.
  21. Krzysztofowicz, R., W. J. Drzal, T. R. Drake, J. C. Weyman, and L. A. Giordano, 1993: Probabilistic quantitative precipitatation forecasts for river basins. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 424-439.
  22. Muller, R. H., 1944: Verification of short-range weather forecast (A survey of the literature). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 25, 18-27, 47-53, 88-95.
  23. Murphy, A. H., 1971: A note on the ranked probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 155-156.
  24. Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
  25. Murphy, A. H., 1977: The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 803-816.
  26. Murphy, A. H., 1988: Skill scores based on the mean square error and their relationships to the correlation coefficient. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 2417-2424.
  27. *Murphy, A. H., 1991: Forecast verification: Its complexity and dimensionality. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1590-1601.
  28. *Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 281-293.
  29. Murphy, A. H., and E. S. Epstein, 1989: Skill scores and correlation coefficients in model verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 572-581.
  30. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1974: Credible interval temperature forecasting: Some experimental results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 784-794.
  31. *Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1987: A general framework for forecast verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1330-1338.
  32. Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler, 1992: Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts. Int. J. Forecasting, 7, 435-455.
  33. *Murphy, A. H., B. G. Brown, and Y.-S. Chen, 1989: Diagnostic verification of temperature forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 4, 485-501.
  34. Peirce, C. S., 1884: The numerical measure of the success of predictions. Science, 4, 453-454.
  35. Staël von Holstein, C.-A. S., and A. H. Murphy, 1978: The family of quadratic scoring rules. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 917-924.
  36. Stewart, T. R., R. W. Katz, and A. H. Murphy, 1984: Value of weather information: A descriptive study of the fruit-frost problem. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 65, 126-137.
  37. Thompson, J. C., and G. W. Brier, 1955: The economic utility of weather forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 83, 249-254.
  38. Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy, 1968: "Good" probability assessors. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, 751-758.
  39. Woodcock, F., 1976: The evaluation of yes/no forecast for scientific and adminstrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 1209-1214.