Papers for FEDA Course

Finley Affair
Finley 1884 Tornado Forecasting
Peirce 1884
Murphy Finley Affair

Basics
Murphy Goodness of Forecasts
Murphy and Winkler-Framework
Murphy on dimensionality
Murphy on stratification

2x2
Doswell et al. 1990-2x2 table rare event limit
Murphy on rare event verification
Marzban on 2x2 in rare event limit
Roebber performance diagram

ROC
Mason-First ROC paper in meteorology
Marzban on ROCs

Ensembles (Rank Histograms and MST)
Hamill on Rank Histograms
MST_Gombos_etal
MST_Smith_Hansen
MST_Wilks
Humphrey-Hawkins forecasts

Ranked Probability Score
Epstein Rank Probability Score
Murphy 1969 RPS as proper scoring rule

Temperature Verification
Murphy temperature verification
Brooks and Doswell Measures and Distributions-OKC temperature
Brooks and Powell-UIUC Forecast Contest

MST Wilks
mason&grahamROL.pdf
ahijevychetal2009.pdf
atger.pdf
Australiabenefits.pdf
BaldwinandKain.pdf
barnesFalseAlarm.pdf
barnston92.pdf
blandaltman.pdf
boerlambert.pdf
briggslevine.pdf
BrownetalFallowing.pdf
brownfallow.pdf
buizza01.pdf
buizzaetal2003poorman.pdf
Casatietal Scale.pdf
changnonecon2003.pdf
chenetal87clvalue.pdf
Clarkneighborhood2010WAF2222404.pdf
courtnewspaper.pdf
Craft1998GreatLakesWarnings.pdf
crying_wolf.pdf
curtiss67pop.pdf
DealorNoDeal.pdf
dieboldvolatilityforecasting_final230505.pdf
Drummond and Holte.pdf
DrummondHolte2006.pdf
eb1961ambiguity.pdf
ebertmcbride2000.pdf
ehrendorfermurphy.pdf
ellsberg1961crude.pdf
ellsberg1961savage.pdf
ellsberg1963reply.pdf
ElmoreBaldwinSchultz.pdf
elmore rank histos.pdf
farmoon2009.ppt
Fawcett2004ROCPR.pdf
Feature-basedVerification.ppt
Fine 2006.pdf
GDP Forecasting.pdf
gillelandetal2009.pdf
gillelandetal2010.pdf
goodmankruskal1.pdf
goodmankruskal2.pdf
Greiner_et_al_2000ROC.pdf
gringorten51jasa.pdf
gringorten65.pdf
gringorten67.pdf
gsci1884tornado.pdf
Hammill and Colucci.pdf
honekopp (obhdp).pdf
jewsonziehmann.pdf
KahnemanTversky1979prospecttheory.pdf
KainUHWAF2007106.pdf
katzetaldynamicdec.pdf
katzetalorchardists.pdf
katzmurphyumbrella.pdf
kolb62raisin.pdf
lak gmmverif.pdf
lambert and boer 2001.pdf
lorenz1905(ROC).pdf
mason79.pdf
murphy72a.pdf
murphy72b.pdf
murphy77cl.pdf
murphy85cl.pdf
murphy86brier.pdf
murphy88ss.pdf
murphyehrendorfer.pdf
murphyepsteinMRF.pdf
murphyetal85cl.pdf
murphystandref.pdf
murphywilks98.pdf
murphyye.pdf
Oreskes1.pdf
Oreskes2.pdf
PAV plot.pdf
ProvostandFawcettKDD-97.pdf
ReichlerKimBAMS08.pdf
renewable_energy03.pdf
Richardson 2000.pdf
Richardson 2001.pdf
ROC-likelihood ratio.pdf
ROCtutorial-UAI07.pdf
roebberbosart96.pdf
roebberetal96.pdf
rosskeithtaf.pdf
sawsverif bull.pdf
schaefer1990.pdf
schaeferlivingston.pdf
Schwartz2009MWR2924.pdf
simmonssutter.pdf
skill_overest_hamill_juras.pdf
stephensoneds.ppt
stephensonetal2008eds.pdf
Stephenson Mon treal.ppt
stephensonodds.pdf
stewartfruitfrost.pdf
subjectiveprob.pdf
Swetsroc.pdf
Taylordiagrams2001.pdf
thompsonandbrier1955.pdf
utilityparadoxbayesdemos.pdf
Varahan and Lewis.pdf
Verifying_high-resolution_forecasts.ppt
VSL WTP.pdf
wandishinbrooks2002.pdf
warnsdt.pdf
wilson00.pdf
wilsonetal99.pdf
winklermurphynonlinprob.pdf