Assigned 26 January, due 2 February
Use the number of F1+ tornadoes in the United States per month from 19542014. The data are available as text files here. Note that the years are the first column.
Calculate the following quantities for each month:
Comment on any differences between the parametric and nonparametric approaches to examining these datasets.
Assigned 2 February, due 11 February
Evaluate the SPC Day 1 (12 Z) convective outlooks from 19732010. The data are available as csv files here. Note that the years are the first column, the slight risk are the next 4 columns, and the moderate risk are the final 4. Also, the slight and moderate risk are the same for 1973 and 1974. Things were redefined in 1975 to make them different.
Calculate the following quantities for each year for each outlook:
(Assigned 16 February, due 23 February)
The following is a set of three probability of precipitation forecasts from the NWS office in Norman for Oklahoma City. The forecasts are all valid at the same periods, but with different lead times. The first two columns are for 012 hours, the second for 2436, and the third for 4860. The first column of each pair is the number of times the forecast value was used and the second column is the number of times precipitation occurred when that forecast was made.
Probability 


























































































a) Construct attributes diagrams for each.
b) Calculate the reliability, resolution, uncertainty, the Brier Score, and the Brier skill score for each.
c) Discuss differences, particularly focusing on the question of change in performance with lead time.
d) For the three datasets, construct Relative Operating Characteristics curves and calculate the area under the curve (dottodot). You may want to look at the notes for ROC curves. As always, discuss what you learn.
Assigned 24 March, due 1 April
Calculate the breakeven decision point for the stolen base decision for all possible cases of 1 man on base and different out situations. Use the Nichols table. Calculate the decision point for