The following table was produced from play-by-play data from every Major League baseball game played between 1984 and 1994. Shortened innings and extra innings are not included. The table gives the expected number of runs (column headed "Expected") that will score given a particular state in the inning, given by the number of outs ("Outs") and the runners on base ("Runners"). Numbers under the "Runners" column tell which bases are occupied. The column headed "Prob > 0" gives the probability that a team will score at least one run in that inning. Raw data used to produce the expected values are given in the final three columns.
Outs Runners Expected Prob > 0 Count Total Runs Shutout 0 --- 0.49 0.275 377390 186702 273565 0 1-- 0.88 0.435 97684 85966 55235 0 -2- 1.13 0.633 29342 33131 10768 0 12- 1.50 0.636 21978 32895 7994 0 --3 1.37 0.837 5360 7333 871 0 1-3 1.75 0.870 9845 17210 1284 0 -23 1.98 0.860 5571 11011 781 0 123 2.37 0.882 5233 12419 617 1 --- 0.26 0.159 270279 70996 227329 1 1-- 0.52 0.276 112521 58731 81420 1 -2- 0.69 0.414 52502 36227 30789 1 12- 0.92 0.425 39375 36031 22649 1 --3 0.96 0.667 18798 18020 6257 1 1-3 1.17 0.653 19988 23348 6942 1 -23 1.40 0.686 14152 19800 4443 1 123 1.57 0.678 13474 21175 4339 2 --- 0.10 0.067 215735 21306 201378 2 1-- 0.23 0.128 113013 25469 98497 2 -2- 0.33 0.224 64639 21275 50176 2 12- 0.44 0.231 50463 22358 38792 2 --3 0.38 0.275 27006 10272 19583 2 1-3 0.50 0.286 25826 13007 18447 2 -23 0.61 0.277 15357 9304 11100 2 123 0.76 0.321 16281 12332 11060
Data from Project Scoresheet/Baseball Workshop, courtesy David Nichols