Expected Runs/Chance of Scoring Table

The following table was produced from play-by-play data from every Major League baseball game played between 1984 and 1994. Shortened innings and extra innings are not included. The table gives the expected number of runs (column headed "Expected") that will score given a particular state in the inning, given by the number of outs ("Outs") and the runners on base ("Runners"). Numbers under the "Runners" column tell which bases are occupied. The column headed "Prob > 0" gives the probability that a team will score at least one run in that inning. Raw data used to produce the expected values are given in the final three columns.

 Outs  Runners  Expected  Prob > 0     Count   Total Runs  Shutout
   0     ---      0.49     0.275      377390     186702     273565
   0     1--      0.88     0.435       97684      85966      55235
   0     -2-      1.13     0.633       29342      33131      10768
   0     12-      1.50     0.636       21978      32895       7994
   0     --3      1.37     0.837        5360       7333        871
   0     1-3      1.75     0.870        9845      17210       1284
   0     -23      1.98     0.860        5571      11011        781
   0     123      2.37     0.882        5233      12419        617
   1     ---      0.26     0.159      270279      70996     227329
   1     1--      0.52     0.276      112521      58731      81420
   1     -2-      0.69     0.414       52502      36227      30789
   1     12-      0.92     0.425       39375      36031      22649
   1     --3      0.96     0.667       18798      18020       6257
   1     1-3      1.17     0.653       19988      23348       6942
   1     -23      1.40     0.686       14152      19800       4443
   1     123      1.57     0.678       13474      21175       4339
   2     ---      0.10     0.067      215735      21306     201378
   2     1--      0.23     0.128      113013      25469      98497
   2     -2-      0.33     0.224       64639      21275      50176
   2     12-      0.44     0.231       50463      22358      38792
   2     --3      0.38     0.275       27006      10272      19583
   2     1-3      0.50     0.286       25826      13007      18447
   2     -23      0.61     0.277       15357       9304      11100
   2     123      0.76     0.321       16281      12332      11060
 

Data from Project Scoresheet/Baseball Workshop, courtesy David Nichols