With Climate Seminar Series.
Melissa Bukovsky
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
28 April 2009, 3:30 PM
National Weather Center, Room 3910a
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
University of Oklahoma
Norman, OK
Directions to the NWC (.pdf, 60 kb)
Changes in the character of precipitation have already been observed over much of the United States. In a warming climate, the impacts of these changes will likely be felt most strongly through changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes. With precipitation, this has potential to be highly disruptive to the environment and the economy. However, while current global climate models may provide acceptable simulations of precipitation on a continental scale, they are lacking when it comes to properly portraying the characteristics of warm-season precipitation over the U.S.; thus, creating uncertainty in the projections of future precipitation in this area of the world. Because predicting climate change is essential for mitigation, adaptation, and planning purposes, assessing the uncertainty associated with climate change projections and producing adequate simulations of present climate is important.
To better address the overarching question of how climate change will impact warm-season precipitation over the U.S., the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to dynamically downscale global climate model output. Differences between present and future simulations are diagnosed and projections for the future of precipitation are given. Overall, projections from this study suggest an increase in the frequency of both floods and droughts during the warm-season in the central U.S.
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