NSSL's research contributes to the development
of new techniques to support National Weather Service operational
forecasting. Research based on real-time data sets leads to a better
conceptual understanding of severe weather processes which in turn results
in improved forecast models and radar products. Better models and radar
products will help clarify the uncertainity of events such as floods
and flash floods, resulting in short-term forecast and warning improvements
and better emergency response management.
Forecast Models
- Probabalistic forecasts from ensembles will
provide more complete information and extend warning lead times on high-impact
events like severe weather outbreaks.
- Developing and testing data assimilation
methods for Doppler radar and lightning data will improve numerical
analyses and predictions of severe storms.
- A new high-resolution numerical weather
prediction system that can be configured for both research and operations
will benefit a community of users.
Warning Improvements
- Providing a way to develop and evaluate prototype
and experimental applications leads to a faster implementation of new
warning tools.
- Improved radar scanning strategies and enhanced
radar performance are increasing the ability of forecasters to detect
and warn the public about developing hazardous weather conditions.
- Accurate quantitative
precipitation estimates (QPE) will lead to improved flash flood
and debris flow warnings.
- Providing forecasters with more information
on the characteristics of low-level winds that affect severe storm
initiation and intensification will lead to improved
short-term severe weather warnings.
- Through the use of simulated Doppler radar signatures,
forecasters develop understandings of how to properly interpret Doppler
velocity and reflectivity signatures of severe weather features.
Understanding Severe Weather Processes
- The Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) is the largest tornado research project in history to explore how, when and why tornadoes form. VORTEX2 teams used a fleet of 10 mobile radars and 70 other instruments to collect weather measurements around and under a supercell thunderstorm. Much about tornadoes remains a mystery, and researchers hope this data will help them better understand tornadoes and lead to further improvements in tornado warning skill.
- Studying the climatology surrounding thunderstorms helps us understand
storm morphology and evolution for individual events, and helps us
pinpoint areas and conditions that create higher risks for lightning
injuries.
- Knowledge gained from field
observations of the atmospheric boundary
layer and storm formation using mobile and fixed observing facilities
will point
to new ways for the National Weather Service to use lightning, radar,
satellite, surface, sounding, and aircraft measurements to improve
forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather.
- Forecasters will be able to use information
about the structure and longevity of thunderstorm complexes to make
better forecasts of derechos, widespread severe
surface winds that can be extremely hazardous to life
and property.
- Knowledge gained from numerically simulating
lightning in 3-D dynamic cloud models may lead to ways lightning
data could be used to improve forecasts.
Testbeds
- NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) develops, tests and evaluates new severe weather forecasting and warning technology and techniques to be used at local weather forecast offices and national centers for environmental prediction.
