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2012 Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop

Wednesday, 8 February, and Thursday, 9 February 2012
Embassy Suites Hotel, 2501 Conference Drive, Norman, Oklahoma 73069

Agenda—Wednesday, 8 February

8:00 am
Coffee
8:30 am
Welcome and Introductions
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman

Session 1: Warn-on-Forecast Overview and Status
Session Chair: Kevin Kelleher

8:45 am
Warn-on-Forecast Project Overview
David Stensrud (.pptx, 5.2 MB)
9:00 am
9:30 am
Radar Data Quality Control
Kevin Manross (.pptx, 12.9 MB)
10:00 am
Break
10:30 am
Data Assimilation Technique Development
Ming Xue (.pptx, 31.3 MB)
11:00 am
Warn-on-Forecast Case Studies
Louis Wicker (.ppt, 10.1 MB)
11:30 am
Model Physics Sensitivities and Challenges
David Dowell (.pdf, 25.4 MB)
12:00 pm
Lunch

Session 2: GOES-R Status and Applications
Session Chair: Ralph Petersen

1:00 pm
GOES-R Status and Update
Steve Goodman (.pptx, 38.8 MB)
1:20 pm
Convection Initiation Indicators from Synthetic Satellite Observations
Louie Grasso, Dan Lindsey and Donald Hillger (.pptx, 13.4 MB)
1:40 pm
Applications of Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Products to National Hurricane Center Forecasts and Warnings
Andrea Schumacher, Mark DeMaria, Michael Brennan, Kate Musgrave, Timothy Marchok and Jon Moskaitis (.pptx, 8.1 MB)
2:00 pm
Optimization of the WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm
Bill McCaul, Jon Case, Scott Dembek, Fanyou Kong, Steve Goodman and Steve Weiss (.ppt, 1 MB)
2:20 pm
NWP Opportunities for Short-time Ranges with the ABI on GOES-R
Tim Schmit and Wayne Feltz (.pptx, 27.5 MB)
2:40 pm
Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast Improvement with GOES-R and Advanced IR Soundings
Jun Li, Tim Schmit, Jinlong Li, Hui Liu and Jing Zheng (.pptx, 6.6 MB)
3:00 pm
Break
3:50 pm
Challenges of Assimilating All-Sky Satellite Radiances
Milija Zupanski, Man Zhang and Karina Apodaca (.pptx, 1.6 MB)

Session 3: The Future of Severe Weather Warnings
Session Chair: Dave Andra

4:30 pm
A Vital Conversation: Lessons Learned Thus Far
Russell Schneider and John Ferree (.ppt, 35.4 MB)
4:50 pm
Exploring the Impact of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warnings
Pam Heinselman, Daphne LaDue and Heather Lazrus (.pptx, 4.4 MB)
Additional material: PARvideo.mp4, 23.7 MB
6:00 pm
Discussion
6:15 pm
Dinner
6:30 pm
Poster Session Summary/Introductions
see Poster Listing below
8:00 pm

Panel Discussion—"Future of Severe and High Impact Weather Warnings"
Moderator: Liz Quetone

Panelists:

  • Rick Smith, National Weather Service (.pptx, 7.9 MB)
  • Mike Magee, Emergency Manager
  • Bob Roberts, Public School Administrator
  • Kim Klockow, Social Scientist (.pptx, 1.4 MB)
9:00 pm
End of Day One

Agenda—Thursday, 9 February

8:00 am
Coffee

Session 4: Verification of High-Resolution Forecasts
Session Chair: Steven Weiss

8:30 am
Verification of Warn-on-Forecast
Adam Clark (.ppt, 12.8 MB)
8:50 am
Feature based Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts in a Storm-scale Ensemble
Xuguang Wang, Aaron Johnson, Fanyou Kong and Ming Xue (.pptx, 4.1 MB)
9:10 am
Verification Methods for High Resolution Ensemble Forecasts
Tara Jensen, Barb Brown, Michelle Harrold, Tressa Fowler, Randy Bullock and Brian Etherton (.pptx, 5 MB)
9:50 am
Break

Session 5: Ensemble Data Assimilation and Predictability
Session Chair: Jason Otkin

10:20 am
Use of Rapid Updating Meso- and Storm-scale Data Assimilation to Improve Forecasts of Thunderstorms and Other High Impact Weather: The Rapid Refresh and HRRR Forecast Systems
Curtis Alexander, David Dowell, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Ming Hu, Tanya Smirnova, Patrick Hoffman, Haido Lin and John Brown (.pptx, 14.8 MB)
10:40 am
Improving CAM Forecasts from a Cycled WRF-DART Mesoscale Analysis System
Glen Romine, Chris Snyder, Jeff Anderson and Craig Schwartz (.pptx, 23.7 MB)
12:00 pm
Predictability of Supercell Thunderstorms
Rebecca Belobraydich, David Stensrud (.pptx, 37 MB)
12:20 pm
Wrap-Up Discussion
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman
1:00 pm
Adjourn

Poster Listing:

  1. Assimilation of AIRS SFOV Retrieval Profiles in the Rapid Refresh Model System: Assimilation Modifications to Maximize Forecast Improvement
    Haidao Lin, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Ming Hu, Patrick Hoffmenn, Jinlong Li, Jun Li, Tim Schmit
  2. EnKF Assimilation of High-Resolution, Mobile Doppler Radar Data of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, Supercell Storm into a Numerical Cloud Model
    Robin Tanamachi, Louis Wicker, David Dowell, Daniel Dawson, Howard Bluestein, Ming Xue
  3. The CASA DFW Demonstration Testbed: An Ideal Platform for Testing and Verifying Warn-on-Forecast
    Jerry Brotzge, Frederick Carr, Ming Xue and Keith Brewster
  4. Kinematical retrievals within a simulated supercell: EnKF vs. dual-Doppler analysis
    Corey K. Potvin and Louis J. Wicker
  5. Sensitivity of WRF-DART analyses and near-term forecasts of a localized heavy precipitation event to planetary boundary layer physics
    Michael Coniglio, Dusty Wheatley, Kevin Manross, Terra Thompson
  6. Assimilation of Reflectivity Data in a Convective-Scale, Cycled 3DVAR Framework with Hydrometeor Classification
    Jidong Gao and David J. Stensrud
  7. The Impact of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes on Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 8 May 2003 Tornadic Supercell Storm
    Nusrat Yussouf, Edward R. Mansell, Louis J. Wicker, Dustan M. Wheatley1, David Dowell, Michael C. Coniglio and David J. Stensrud
  8. Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system observed during BAMEX
    Dustan M. Wheatley, Nusrat Yussouf,ÊMichael C. Coniglio and David J. Stensrud
  9. EnKF Assimilation of Cloud Properties Retrieved From GOES
    Thomas A. Jones and David J. Stensrud
  10. Multi-Moment and Multi-Phase Ice Microphysics in Storm-scale EnKF
    Ted Mansell and Daniel Dawson
  11. Impact of changes in vertical grid spacing to Advanced Research WRF model simulations of mesoscale convective systems
    Kent H. Knopfmeier and David J. Stensrud
  12. Initial Results from a Convective-scale Analysis and Prediction of the 14 June 2011 Norman Oklahoma Macroburst using Conventional and Rapid-Scan Doppler Radar Data
    Louis Wicker, Corey Potvin and Therese Thompson
  13. The 2011 OUN WRF Experiment: Results and Discussion
    Gabriel Garfield, Matthew Foster, and David Andra
  14. Doppler Radar Data Assimilation using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalmas Filter
    Therese Thompson, Louis Wicker and Xuguang Wang
  15. Ensemble prediction of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, KS tornadic supercell: Impact of microphysics
    Daniel Dawson, Louis Wicker, Ted Mansell and Robin Tanamachi
  16. Assessment of Selected Automated Radar Quality Control Efforts on WSR-88D Data
    Kevin L. Manross, Brandon Smith, Aaron Kaulfus and Anthony Bain
  17. Results from the 2011 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
    James Correia, Steven Weiss, Russ Schneider, Jack Kain, Michael Coniglio
  18. Observing System Simulation Experiments of a Derecho-Producing Convective System: Sensitivity to covariance localization
    Ryan Sobash and David Stensrud
  19. Multi-scale EnKF data assimilation and forecasts of the 10 May 2010 tornado case in the central US domain
    Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue, Yunheng Wang, Kefeng Zhu, and Yujie Pan
  20. A four-dimensional asynchronous ensemble square-root filter (4DEnSRF) algorithm and tests with the 10 May 2010 tornado case
    Shizhang Wang and Ming Xue
  21. The analysis and prediction of microphysical states and polarimetric variables in a mesoscale convective system using double-moment microphysics, multi-network radar data, and the ensemble Kalman filter
    Bryan Putnam, Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung, Nathan Snook, and Guifu Zhang
  22. Implementation of LETKF with ARPS model and some preliminary results of OSSE
    Gang Zhao, Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, and Youngsun Jung
  23. EnKF and EnKF-GSI hybrid development and testing for Rapid Refresh configurations
    Kefeng Zhu, Yujie Pan, and Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, Jeffrey Whitaker, Stanley Benjamin and Stephen Weygandt
  24. The impact of covariance inflation methods on the spread of ensemble simulations
    Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming
  25. Assimilation of attenuated data from an X-band radar network for a quasi-linear storm using the ensemble Kalman filter
    Jing Cheng and Ming Xue
  26. How university and school district officials anticipated and responded to NWS tornado warnings and their thoughts on extended lead time: Spring 2011 case studies
    Amy Nichols, Stephanie Hoekstra and Eve Gruntfest
  27. Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Rare Events
    Patrick T. Marsh, John S. Kain, Valliappa Lakshmanan, Adam J. Clark