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2012 Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop
Wednesday, 8 February, and Thursday, 9 February 2012
Embassy Suites Hotel, 2501 Conference Drive, Norman, Oklahoma 73069
Agenda—Wednesday, 8 February
8:00 am
Coffee
8:30 am
Welcome and Introductions
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman
Session 1: Warn-on-Forecast Overview and Status
Session Chair: Kevin Kelleher
8:45 am
Warn-on-Forecast Project Overview
David Stensrud (.pptx, 5.2 MB)
David Stensrud (.pptx, 5.2 MB)
9:00 am
Results of WoF Testing in the Hazardous Weather Testbed
Kristin Kuhlman (.pptx, 20.3 MB)
Kristin Kuhlman (.pptx, 20.3 MB)
9:30 am
Radar Data Quality Control
Kevin Manross (.pptx, 12.9 MB)
Kevin Manross (.pptx, 12.9 MB)
10:00 am
Break
10:30 am
Data Assimilation Technique Development
Ming Xue (.pptx, 31.3 MB)
Ming Xue (.pptx, 31.3 MB)
11:00 am
Warn-on-Forecast Case Studies
Louis Wicker (.ppt, 10.1 MB)
Louis Wicker (.ppt, 10.1 MB)
11:30 am
Model Physics Sensitivities and Challenges
David Dowell (.pdf, 25.4 MB)
David Dowell (.pdf, 25.4 MB)
12:00 pm
Lunch
Session 2: GOES-R Status and Applications
Session Chair: Ralph Petersen
1:00 pm
GOES-R Status and Update
Steve Goodman (.pptx, 38.8 MB)
Steve Goodman (.pptx, 38.8 MB)
1:20 pm
Convection Initiation Indicators from Synthetic Satellite Observations
Louie Grasso, Dan Lindsey and Donald Hillger (.pptx, 13.4 MB)
Louie Grasso, Dan Lindsey and Donald Hillger (.pptx, 13.4 MB)
1:40 pm
Applications of Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Products to National Hurricane Center Forecasts and Warnings
Andrea Schumacher, Mark DeMaria, Michael Brennan, Kate Musgrave, Timothy Marchok and Jon Moskaitis (.pptx, 8.1 MB)
Andrea Schumacher, Mark DeMaria, Michael Brennan, Kate Musgrave, Timothy Marchok and Jon Moskaitis (.pptx, 8.1 MB)
2:00 pm
Optimization of the WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm
Bill McCaul, Jon Case, Scott Dembek, Fanyou Kong, Steve Goodman and Steve Weiss (.ppt, 1 MB)
Bill McCaul, Jon Case, Scott Dembek, Fanyou Kong, Steve Goodman and Steve Weiss (.ppt, 1 MB)
2:20 pm
NWP Opportunities for Short-time Ranges with the ABI on GOES-R
Tim Schmit and Wayne Feltz (.pptx, 27.5 MB)
Tim Schmit and Wayne Feltz (.pptx, 27.5 MB)
2:40 pm
Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast Improvement with GOES-R and Advanced IR Soundings
Jun Li, Tim Schmit, Jinlong Li, Hui Liu and Jing Zheng (.pptx, 6.6 MB)
Jun Li, Tim Schmit, Jinlong Li, Hui Liu and Jing Zheng (.pptx, 6.6 MB)
3:00 pm
Break
3:30 pm
3:50 pm
Challenges of Assimilating All-Sky Satellite Radiances
Milija Zupanski, Man Zhang and Karina Apodaca (.pptx, 1.6 MB)
Milija Zupanski, Man Zhang and Karina Apodaca (.pptx, 1.6 MB)
4:10 pm
All-Sky Radiance Assimilation using NOAA Operational HWRF and a Regional Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation System
Man Zhang, Milija Zupanski, Min-Jeong Kim and John Knaff (.pdf, 6.2 MB)
Man Zhang, Milija Zupanski, Min-Jeong Kim and John Knaff (.pdf, 6.2 MB)
Session 3: The Future of Severe Weather Warnings
Session Chair: Dave Andra
4:30 pm
A Vital Conversation: Lessons Learned Thus Far
Russell Schneider and John Ferree (.ppt, 35.4 MB)
Russell Schneider and John Ferree (.ppt, 35.4 MB)
4:50 pm
Exploring the Impact of Rapid-Scan Radar Data on NWS Warnings
Pam Heinselman, Daphne LaDue and Heather Lazrus (.pptx, 4.4 MB)
Additional material: PARvideo.mp4, 23.7 MB
Pam Heinselman, Daphne LaDue and Heather Lazrus (.pptx, 4.4 MB)
Additional material: PARvideo.mp4, 23.7 MB
5:10 pm
How university and school district officials anticipated and responded to NWS tornado warnings and their thoughts on extended lead time: Spring 2011 case studies
Stephanie Hoekstra, Amy Nichols and Eve Gruntfest (.pdf, 3 MB)
Stephanie Hoekstra, Amy Nichols and Eve Gruntfest (.pdf, 3 MB)
6:00 pm
Discussion
6:15 pm
Dinner
6:30 pm
Poster Session Summary/Introductions
see Poster Listing below
see Poster Listing below
8:00 pm
Panel Discussion—"Future of Severe and High Impact Weather Warnings"
Moderator: Liz Quetone
Panelists:
- Rick Smith, National Weather Service (.pptx, 7.9 MB)
- Mike Magee, Emergency Manager
- Bob Roberts, Public School Administrator
- Kim Klockow, Social Scientist (.pptx, 1.4 MB)
9:00 pm
End of Day One
Agenda—Thursday, 9 February
8:00 am
Coffee
Session 4: Verification of High-Resolution Forecasts
Session Chair: Steven Weiss
8:30 am
Verification of Warn-on-Forecast
Adam Clark (.ppt, 12.8 MB)
Adam Clark (.ppt, 12.8 MB)
8:50 am
Feature based Evaluation of Precipitation Forecasts in a Storm-scale Ensemble
Xuguang Wang, Aaron Johnson, Fanyou Kong and Ming Xue (.pptx, 4.1 MB)
Xuguang Wang, Aaron Johnson, Fanyou Kong and Ming Xue (.pptx, 4.1 MB)
9:10 am
Verification Methods for High Resolution Ensemble Forecasts
Tara Jensen, Barb Brown, Michelle Harrold, Tressa Fowler, Randy Bullock and Brian Etherton (.pptx, 5 MB)
Tara Jensen, Barb Brown, Michelle Harrold, Tressa Fowler, Randy Bullock and Brian Etherton (.pptx, 5 MB)
9:30 am
Verification and Calibration of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts Derived from Neighborhood and Object Based Methods for a Storm-scale Ensemble
Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue (.pptx, 4.5 MB)
Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Fanyou Kong, Ming Xue (.pptx, 4.5 MB)
9:50 am
Break
Session 5: Ensemble Data Assimilation and Predictability
Session Chair: Jason Otkin
10:20 am
Use of Rapid Updating Meso- and Storm-scale Data Assimilation to Improve Forecasts of Thunderstorms and Other High Impact Weather: The Rapid Refresh and HRRR Forecast Systems
Curtis Alexander, David Dowell, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Ming Hu, Tanya Smirnova, Patrick Hoffman, Haido Lin and John Brown (.pptx, 14.8 MB)
Curtis Alexander, David Dowell, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Ming Hu, Tanya Smirnova, Patrick Hoffman, Haido Lin and John Brown (.pptx, 14.8 MB)
10:40 am
Improving CAM Forecasts from a Cycled WRF-DART Mesoscale Analysis System
Glen Romine, Chris Snyder, Jeff Anderson and Craig Schwartz (.pptx, 23.7 MB)
Glen Romine, Chris Snyder, Jeff Anderson and Craig Schwartz (.pptx, 23.7 MB)
11:00 am
Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasts of a Tornadic Mesoscale Convective Sytesm using Nested-Grid Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation
Nathan Snook, Ming Xue and Youngsun Jung (.pptx, 35.3 MB)
Nathan Snook, Ming Xue and Youngsun Jung (.pptx, 35.3 MB)
11:20 am
Toward Improving Representation of Model Microphysics Errors in a Storm-scale Ensemble: Evaluation and Diagnosis of Mixed-Microphysics and Perturbed Microphysics Parameter Ensembles in the 2011 HWT Spring Experiment
Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Ming Xue and Fanyou Kong (.pptx, 2.3 MB)
Jeff Duda, Xuguang Wang, Ming Xue and Fanyou Kong (.pptx, 2.3 MB)
11:40 pm
Status and Future Plans of Mesoscale Modeling and Data Assimilation at EMC
Geoff DiMego (.pptx, 17.9 MB)
Geoff DiMego (.pptx, 17.9 MB)
12:00 pm
Predictability of Supercell Thunderstorms
Rebecca Belobraydich, David Stensrud (.pptx, 37 MB)
Rebecca Belobraydich, David Stensrud (.pptx, 37 MB)
12:20 pm
Wrap-Up Discussion
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman
David Stensrud, Steve Goodman
1:00 pm
Adjourn
Poster Listing:
- Assimilation of AIRS SFOV Retrieval Profiles in the Rapid Refresh Model System: Assimilation Modifications to Maximize Forecast Improvement
Haidao Lin, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Ming Hu, Patrick Hoffmenn, Jinlong Li, Jun Li, Tim Schmit - EnKF Assimilation of High-Resolution, Mobile Doppler Radar Data of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas, Supercell Storm into a Numerical Cloud Model
Robin Tanamachi, Louis Wicker, David Dowell, Daniel Dawson, Howard Bluestein, Ming Xue - The CASA DFW Demonstration Testbed: An Ideal Platform for Testing and Verifying Warn-on-Forecast
Jerry Brotzge, Frederick Carr, Ming Xue and Keith Brewster - Kinematical retrievals within a simulated supercell: EnKF vs. dual-Doppler analysis
Corey K. Potvin and Louis J. Wicker - Sensitivity of WRF-DART analyses and near-term forecasts of a localized heavy precipitation event to planetary boundary layer physics
Michael Coniglio, Dusty Wheatley, Kevin Manross, Terra Thompson - Assimilation of Reflectivity Data in a Convective-Scale, Cycled 3DVAR Framework with Hydrometeor Classification
Jidong Gao and David J. Stensrud - The Impact of Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes on Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 8 May 2003 Tornadic Supercell Storm
Nusrat Yussouf, Edward R. Mansell, Louis J. Wicker, Dustan M. Wheatley1, David Dowell, Michael C. Coniglio and David J. Stensrud - Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system observed during BAMEX
Dustan M. Wheatley, Nusrat Yussouf,ÊMichael C. Coniglio and David J. Stensrud - EnKF Assimilation of Cloud Properties Retrieved From GOES
Thomas A. Jones and David J. Stensrud - Multi-Moment and Multi-Phase Ice Microphysics in Storm-scale EnKF
Ted Mansell and Daniel Dawson - Impact of changes in vertical grid spacing to Advanced Research WRF model simulations of mesoscale convective systems
Kent H. Knopfmeier and David J. Stensrud - Initial Results from a Convective-scale Analysis and Prediction of the 14 June 2011 Norman Oklahoma Macroburst using Conventional and Rapid-Scan Doppler Radar Data
Louis Wicker, Corey Potvin and Therese Thompson - The 2011 OUN WRF Experiment: Results and Discussion
Gabriel Garfield, Matthew Foster, and David Andra - Doppler Radar Data Assimilation using a Local Ensemble Transform Kalmas Filter
Therese Thompson, Louis Wicker and Xuguang Wang - Ensemble prediction of the 4 May 2007 Greensburg, KS tornadic supercell: Impact of microphysics
Daniel Dawson, Louis Wicker, Ted Mansell and Robin Tanamachi - Assessment of Selected Automated Radar Quality Control Efforts on WSR-88D Data
Kevin L. Manross, Brandon Smith, Aaron Kaulfus and Anthony Bain - Results from the 2011 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
James Correia, Steven Weiss, Russ Schneider, Jack Kain, Michael Coniglio - Observing System Simulation Experiments of a Derecho-Producing Convective System: Sensitivity to covariance localization
Ryan Sobash and David Stensrud - Multi-scale EnKF data assimilation and forecasts of the 10 May 2010 tornado case in the central US domain
Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue, Yunheng Wang, Kefeng Zhu, and Yujie Pan - A four-dimensional asynchronous ensemble square-root filter (4DEnSRF) algorithm and tests with the 10 May 2010 tornado case
Shizhang Wang and Ming Xue - The analysis and prediction of microphysical states and polarimetric variables in a mesoscale convective system using double-moment microphysics, multi-network radar data, and the ensemble Kalman filter
Bryan Putnam, Ming Xue, Youngsun Jung, Nathan Snook, and Guifu Zhang - Implementation of LETKF with ARPS model and some preliminary results of OSSE
Gang Zhao, Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, and Youngsun Jung - EnKF and EnKF-GSI hybrid development and testing for Rapid Refresh configurations
Kefeng Zhu, Yujie Pan, and Ming Xue, Xuguang Wang, Jeffrey Whitaker, Stanley Benjamin and Stephen Weygandt - The impact of covariance inflation methods on the spread of ensemble simulations
Tim Supinie, Youngsun Jung, and Ming - Assimilation of attenuated data from an X-band radar network for a quasi-linear storm using the ensemble Kalman filter
Jing Cheng and Ming Xue - How university and school district officials anticipated and responded to NWS tornado warnings and their thoughts on extended lead time: Spring 2011 case studies
Amy Nichols, Stephanie Hoekstra and Eve Gruntfest - Calibration of Probabilistic Forecasts of Rare Events
Patrick T. Marsh, John S. Kain, Valliappa Lakshmanan, Adam J. Clark