To: david.schultz@noaa.gov
Subject: Mar 9

Dave,

First of all, thanks for putting some info on the web for this
situation.
...click...click...
However, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. Take the
Blacksburg discussion....a question....where are they talking about
enhanced precipiation rates??? It doesn't say in the clip of text you
have shown. Since Blacksburg usually writes about the weather occurring
in there CWA (their own backyard or an upstream backyard), unless
you show me that they were talking specifically about the DC area,
then they must have been talking about their area. To my knowledge
they barely had any snow in their CWA on this date. So...before
giving kudos to Blacksburg, you better tell folks where they think
this enhanced precip was going to occur.

2nd...
With the 80 km resolution of data from the Eta model on AWIPS (as well
as the RUC)...it is VERY difficult to precisely pinpoint these mesoscale
features...even though the model has a higher resolution (29km - Eta,
40 km RUC-2). Through the use of PCGRIDDs, I've attempted to compare
the 00Z/09th Eta model runs at both 80 and 40 km resolution and have
found that there was little in the way of PSI showing for the DC
area. I did manage to get my hands on the 09/00Z Eta run in GEMPAK on
an 80 km res...  and could actually compute CSI (using the saturated
theta-E)...and the results were equally disappointing...no clear PSI
signal over DC. So when you discuss our forecast snippet saying we
don't see CSI...we DON'T see it in the model data we were looking at
in real time. (The RUC-2 data come in at 60 km res on GARP and
PCGRIDDs...and there were NO RUC-2 fields available to us until
09Z/09th from Eastern Region!).

3rd...In what I consider a truly amazing forecast, the 18Z Eta run
(available to us on the 40km res in both GEMPAK and PCGRIDDs (and
AWIPS)) showed a remarkeable band of negative EPV (associated with
PSI) extending from 700 to 500 mb in the precise orientation that the
heavy snow fell!  Had the forecasters here at Sterling not been
BURNED all winter long by lousy (and I truly mean lousy) Eta model
forecasts, they would have issued a winter storm watch on the
spot...but they mention snow totals of 2-4 inches and a start time of
the snow closer to the actual time (of course the midnight shift came
in and cut back the snow amount and timings...dooahhh!).  Regardless,
the 18Z/08th Eta run did something right...and had liquid water equivs
of nearly 0.9" over the DC/IAD area.

4th...The Sterling WFO the week of Mar 7-10 was undergoing intensive
AWIPS OUT training. On the morning of Mar 9...I strode into the door
at 7AM...and immediately began updating both forecasts and calling all
EOC managers in the DC area telling them that snow was here...at 7AM
(not noon) and that totals would be more than 4 inches. The wheels of
government though move slowly...and we were only able to get OPM's
attention by 1030 AM...in fact...all of their top staff where in
training at a secluded DC location.  Well...it was me from 7-8AM and
in that time...our AFOS system failed...  and I spent the better part
of that hour trying to get it up and running so that I could send out
products telling folks more snow was on the way...Then at 8AM the day
shift public guy comes in...it was the MIC who was filling in for
folks who were in AWIPS training....then at 11AM the MIC left and a
new person came in on the public desk and avaition desks!!! Where's
the continuity? And besides, we had just gotten AWIPS in our office
the week before...nobody was very seasoned in using it to diagnosis
the weather...we're still learning!

5th...I'd be willing to shell out some BIG BUCKs that no one-you, me,
Doswell, you pick em...could have caught this event as it was about to
unfold. And, if you think you could...then I bet that you'd also be
going out with ALOT of false winter storm watches/warnings if you
believe the model forecasts this past winter (and there were alot of
busts...more than I can remember...when a warning would go out...and
it wouldn't even snow!)

6th...traffic in DC and Nrn VA that day was a nightmare. It was not
funny.  Three people died in weather-related traffic accidents. By the
time we got the word out to the road crews, that were paralyzed by a
gridlock of stalled traffic ...people had been stuck in traffic for
hours and many simply either ran out of gas idling...or just abandoned
their cars in the middle of the road! I do not want to see this
situation happen again, trust me. However, the area affected by the
heaviest snow was only about 15-20 km wide. Now explain to me how a
model having a grid resolution of 40 km is going to capture that scale
of feature? It won't.

Bottom line...  This is an excellent case that needs to be pursued. I
have much of the GEMPAK model data along with PCGRIDDs files. I have
all of the surface, upper air, buoy data. I have NO satellite
data. I'm in the severe weather mode now and am afraid that I won't
see this case for another month. So...we need to examine this case as
in-depth as possible. Rich Grumm (the SOO at State College) and one of
his forecasters (Dave Nicosia) and I are planning to write up this
case for a future publiciation. I wouldn't mind to have some others
involved in the research. Know of anyone who might be interested??

Well...got to go. Sorry to hear about the terrible tornadoes down
there.  I know what it's like to live through a monster F5. I was just
outside of Xenia, OH back in April 1974 and survived. That's another
story.

Take care.
Steve Z.