VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 2 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA:  
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

SFC DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPR 60S F NAVE RETURNED NNWWD INTO
WRN TX AND EXTRM SERN NM.  SFC BASED LI VALUES HV ALREADY
REACHED -8 TO -9 FM AMA AREA SWD INTO SERN NM AND MAF AREA.
STG CONVECTION WHICH INITIATED IN 700 MB WARM ADVCTN ZONE
APRS TO HAVE BCM SFC BASED AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN
REPORTED NE OF AMA.  THIS CONVECTION EXTNDS NNW-SSE FM NE
OF AMA TO S OF CDS AND IS EXPCD TO CONT STRENTHENING AS
DIRUNAL HEATING CONTS.  CELLS SHOULD MOV ONLY SLOWLY EWD.
SOME CHC THESE CELLS COULD BECOME TARGETABLE IF MID LVL
WINDS INCR.  

MID LVL WINDS WK AT MOMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCR...
PARTICULARLY AFTR 00Z.  PRIND NEW STG TSTM DVLPMT WL 
OCCUR NR W EDGE OF MOIST AXIS OVR ERN NM THIS AFTN AND
PSBLY ALSO FORM EWD ALG SFC BDRY INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN LBB
AND AMA. THIS NEW ACTVTY EXPCD TO OCCUR IN AREA OF INCRG LO 
AND MID LVL WINDS WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF TARGETABLE STORMS
...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.  CELLS EXPCD TO MOV
EWD ABOUT 10 TO 20 KT. 

...JOHNS

IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR TOR WL CONT ACRS THE WRN PTN
OF THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES SLOLY ENEWD ACRS 
THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DRYLN IS FCST TO BE NRLY STNRY THRU 
THE PD FM SE CO SWD ALG THE TX/NM BDR. MODELS SUGG THAT 
TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING SAT MORNING ACRS THE TX/OK PNHDLS.
THIS ACTVTY WL LKLY LIFT NEWD INTO KS DURG THE DAY...
PERHAPS LEAVING A MESOSCALE BNDRY ACRS THE REGION. 
BY MID AFTN XPC CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR THE TX PNHDL/
PTNS OF NW TX. FCST WIND FIELDS EXHIBT SUFFICIENT VERT SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE 
THE LACK OF UPR SUPPORT AS MAIN SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES NNE 
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OUT OF OPS AREA. NONETHELESS...
THERE SHUD BE SUFFICENT LOW LEVEL FORCING FM THE DRYLN AND 
MESOSCALE BNDRYS FOR CNVTV INITIATION SAT AFTN. ATTM...THE
MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SVR CNVTN IS XPCD TO BE OVR THE 
TX/OK PNHDLS.

...VESCIO



PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   100     100
SEVERE                      098     098
TORNADOES                   060     060
TARGETABLE STORM            095     090 

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             26020    22025
SUPERCELL                 28010    25018

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1130    1400 
1ST SEVERE RPT             1130    1530 
1ST TORNADO                1530    1630 

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