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BAMS publishes two NSSL articles

The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published two articles by NSSL in the October, 2009 issue.

“Convective-scale Warn-On-Forecast System: A Vision for 2020” calls on the research community to develop warning methods in which numerical model forecasts play a much larger role. Current convective-scale hazard warnings are based on observation. A Warn-on-Forecast system would provide longer lead times through an additional layer of warning information containing probabilistic hazard information. Increasing severe thunderstorm, flash flood, and tornado warning lead times is a key NOAA strategic mission goal designed to reduce the loss of life, injury, and economic costs of high-impact weather by providing more trusted weather and water information in support of organized public mitigation activities. The authors of the article are NSSL’s Dave Stensrud, Lou Wicker, Kevin Kelleher, along with Ming Xue (Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms), Mike Foster (NOAA NWSFO Norman, Okla.), Joe Schaefer and Russ Schneider (NOAA Storm Prediction Center), Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt (NOAA ESRL), John Ferree (NOAA NWS Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services), and Jason Tuell (NOAA NWS Office of Science and Technology Policy).

A largely student run project is described in the article “Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment “ (SHAVE). A project scientist and operations coordinator guide daily activities, with students making phone calls to the public affected by severe thunderstorms. Their job is to collect information on hail sizes, wind damage and flash flooding. The public reports are then blended with high-resolution radar data and geographic information from Google Earth to create a diverse dataset on all types of storms. This information will be used to improve decision-making tools used by the NWS in the forecast and warning process, and pave the way for improvements to the historical severe storms database. SHAVE is expected to continue beyond 2009, with a possible expansion into winter weather verification. The authors are NSSL/Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorology Studies Kiel Ortega, Travis Smith, Kevin Manross, and Angelyn Kolodziej, Kevin Scharfenberg (NWS Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services), and Arthur Witt and J.J. Gourley (NOAA NSSL).