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Forecast Applications
EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTING
Real-time MCS forecasting products
NSSL
collaborated with the Storm
Prediction Center to find ways to improve the prediction of thunderstorm complexes that produce severe surface winds. They have developed two real-time Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) forecasting products: MCS Maintenance Probability (MMP) and Derecho Composite Parameter (DCP). Real-time plots of these products are available during testing periods. The plots are based on output from the operational Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) 40km grid. More
about thunderstorm complex modeling »
NUMERICAL MODELS
Forecast model MCS
Mesoscale Convective Systems
Dr. Michael Coniglio
is looking at innovative ways to incorporate high-resolution radar observations
into computer models to improve the short-term prediction of mesoscale convective
systems (MCSs), which often produce widespread severe winds and heavy rainfall. More
about MCS modeling »
WEATHER RESEARCH and FORECASTING MODEL
The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is a next generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. NSSL scientists have been major contributors to WRF development efforts and continue to provide leadership in the operational implementation and testing of WRF:
- Evaluation of WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting
- Evaluation of convection-allowing models
- model physics sensitivities and optimizing probabilistic guidance
- Next-day convection-allowing WRF model guidance
- Variations on grid spacing
NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED
New weather and forecasting model research is evaluated and tested at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. Scientists and forecasters at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed facility focus on developing new applications from operational data sets and transferring new technologies from research into forecast operations. Spring Experiments have occurred annually since 2000, and explore experimental forecasting strategies, including investigations of new physical process representations in numerical models, ensemble approaches to numerical modeling, and applications of high-resolution model predictions in routine severe-weather forecasts. The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed fosters a broader collaboration between researchers and practitioners in multiple areas, particularly shorter-timescale forecasting challenges. More about the Hazardous Weather Testbed »
