NSSL and NCEP improving precipitation-type forecasting

Meteorologists in the Mesoscale Applications Group at the NSSL are working with forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center to test the accuracy and forecast utility of six precipitation-type algorithms during the winter of 1999-2000. Predicting winter-time precipitation (e.g., rain, snow, freezing rain or ice pellets) is a difficult task for most forecasters. The computer programs being tested use data generated by NCEP's Eta model to forecast the most likely type of precipitation that will occur at a particular location. The algorithms that will be tested during the Precipitation-Type Algorithms eXperiment (PTAX) have the potential to provide forecasters with a good estimate of the type of precipitation that may occur across the United States and southern Canada, as well as the forecast uncertainty. Meteorologists hope that the algorithms tested this winter will provide accurate and timely forecasts of precipitation type, helping forecasters warn the public of any impending hazardous winter weather.

For more information , contact John Cortinas (cortinas@nssl.noaa.gov, 405-366-0482).