From the Director:

The value of NSSL Research

by Jeff Kimpel

The tornadoes of May 3, 1999 were a tragedy. However, every report from the media, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), insurance adjusters, and even statements from the victims themselves, point out that it could have been much worse. To a large part, the fact that it wasn't worse is due to NSSL research and the capability of the NWS to deploy these research results. Progress in the socio-economic aspects of severe and hazardous weather eventually will quantify how much worse it might have been.

Storm morphology studies performed by NSSL scientists during early tornado intercepts (a.k.a. storm chases) refined our knowledge of supercell and other convective phenomena. The descriptive and visual models used in training and education programs for emergency managers, law enforcement, volunteer storm spotters and the televised media are products of that research. Hundreds of thousands of school children have been taught severe storm characteristics and safety rules gleaned from NSSL publications and outreach materials.

During the 1970s and 1980s, when the Norman Doppler radar was only a research tool, much was learned about internal storm structure, processes and dynamics. Once NSSL and others learned how storms worked, NWS forecasters were given new tools to use in making critical decisions on whether and when to issue outlooks, watches and warnings to the media and public. Applications from this more basic science found their way into the interpretation of data from new observational tools such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and the [WSR-88D] Doppler weather radar.

Another important contribution is NSSL' s Gold Medal- role in the development of the WSR-88D itself. The research and development path from the Norman Doppler through NEXRAD to the present-day WSR-88D is an achievement now known to the nation. NSSL engineers, scientists, algorithm specialists, computer personnel and support staff all played a role and must share in the credit. The WSR-88D was the crucial tool used by the NWS to issue tornado warnings on May 3rd and 4th.

Wisely, NSSL embarked on a plan to merge WSR-88D data with the best decision science has to offer. Using artificial intelligence, neural network concepts, fuzzy logic, cutting-edge statistics, and ergonomically designed displays, NSSL's WDSS was undergoing field testing at the Norman and Tulsa Forecast Offices on May 3rd. Both offices reported that the WDSS was an important component during this outbreak and assisted in the timeliness and accuracy of the 176 warnings issued that night and morning. Preliminary findings from 14 different NWS offices where WDSS has undergone extensive testing show increases of eight and six minutes for tornado and severe storm warnings respectively, with an increase in overall skill. Further improvements to WDSS by incorporation of other data sets (satellite, mesoscale model output, etc.) and further algorithm development are planned (see cover story).

Socio-economic research performed by NSSL scientists Harold Brooks and Chuck Doswell, using inflation-adjusted ratios of property loss to deaths indicate that 400 to 1,000 lives were saved by the 'system' in place on May 3rd and 4th. By system, I am referring to the functioning science, technology, emergency preparedness, and media--especially the local television broadcasters--and their ability to work together for the common good. The warnings issued during this outbreak were of such quality that television weathercasters effectively conveyed the urgency of the situation to the public, and the Oklahoma Highway Patrol, in constant communication with the Norman National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO), stopped traffic on I-44 in advance of a tornado crossing. These two actions alone saved lives and reduced property damage. NSSL and our three other NOAA Weather Partners, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), the WSR-88D Operational Support Facility, and the Norman NWSFO, are saddened by the fact that several of our employees' homes were lost to the May 3rd Outbreak. Fortunately, none of our employees or family members living in these destroyed or damaged homes were killed or seriously injured. However, several NOAA or Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) employees lost members of their extended families. The response of our employees to their colleagues in this time of need has been tremendous. Gifts of food, emergency power generators, cash from fund raisers, and assistance in debris removal has been most generous. Other NOAA employees have given their time and volunteered their services to the relief effort. In all, this seems fitting from those who clearly understand the destructive nature of the planetŐs most violent storm, the tornado.