Two Airforce Officers at Tinker Field Study Their Maps. Then, When Weather Gets Rough, They Warn the Military

At 7:17 p.m. last February 19, the elements moved in a twisting, violent pattern over an area about 125 miles square north of Wichita Falls and headed toward Oklahoma City. During the next three hours there were three tornadoes in the Lawton area and another at Spring Creek, 16 miles northeast of Anadarko. Newspapers the next day reported damage at Fort Reno. A plane hanger was wrecked at Hobart.

At 10 p .m. a tornado hit south of Norman and there was heavy hail at Geary, Norman and other points. Capitol Hill, Edmond and Clinton reported wind damage. In a larger area, on the fringe of the tornadic strip, there were numerous thunderstorms; hail was reported at Woodward and Enid and as far south as Dallas. There was wind damage at Elk City. Fifty-five mile winds lashed Will Rogers field, southwest of Oklahoma City; 60 mile winds hit Clinton. At Tinker air base winds howled at 53 miles an hour.

For hours before the two areas were struck teletypes in the office of two Tinker airforce base meteorologists tapped out the forecasts to military activities in this section.

It's getting to be an old story for Lt. Col. E. J. Fawbush and Capt. Robert C. Miller, airforce severe storm forecasters, who are calling their shots with unbelievable accuracy. Of 75 tornado forecasts issued by the Fawbush-Miller method, 67 have been verified by teletype messages, newspaper clippings and highway patrol reports.

Fawbush-Miller forecasts, which have gained nationwide recognition, began in the spring of 1948 when the airforce officers operated their tornado warning service for Oklahoma. In July, 1950, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, western Tennessee, Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska were included when operations were extended. In January, 1951, they stepped up their personnel and communication facilities to include forecasts for military use for the entire United States.

In one of the more recent forecasts, thunderstorms, wind and hail were predicted in an area, about 225 by 300 mile-area in central and southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. The forecast was issued at 12:57 p.m. with activity seen between 3 p.m. and 3 a.m. At 9 p.m. it came.

The smallest area pin-pointed by the Fawbush-Miller methods was a straight line between Lawton and Tulsa. The preliminary forecast was 26 hours in advance with the final forecast six hours in advance. That was the night of the devastating Norman tornado.

A $10 millions destruction at Tinker air base led Col. Fawbush and Capt. Miller into the field of tornado research and led to their discoveries on severe storm forecasting. On March 20, 1948, the Tinker airforce base weather station issued a routine forecast for thunderstorms in the vicinity. At 10 p.m. a vicious tornado formed southwest of the field and raked its entire length, destroying aircraft and other valuable property in the open.

Investigating officers of a board of inquiry learned from Fawbush's testimony that forecast of tornado conditions, with accompanying destructive hail and high winds, were impossible with present methods.

The two officers shoved other work aside and concentrated on the meteorological factors which were present in the storm. They studied data in their files on the Woodward tornado of April 1947, and storms of less sensational nature. A careful comparison of data on past storms with that of the March twister revealed some startling similarities, not only in the shape and movement of the surface storm, but lower levels and wind flow.

Just five days after the air base twister, Col. Fawbush and Capt. Miller arrived at some pretty firm conclusions which, a few hours later, they were destined to use in their greatest tornado gamble.

Turning from research to the daily weather check, they were surprised to find that a thunderstorm situation in the making, presenting the same combination of weather elements. For the second time in five days central Oklahoma was in the critical danger area. Should they proceed on the basis of a completely new and untried theory and issue a severe storm warning?

Fawbush and Miller decided to gamble personal humiliation and the dollars and man- hours required for security against their new-found theory, the first positive issuance of a forecast of possible tornadic conditions for the first time anywhere.

By midafternoon all movable property was under shelter and all aircraft in operational status was secured in hangars. As yet there were no storm indications. But at 5:45 p.m. thunderstorms, which formed in western and southwestern Oklahoma, moved into Oklahoma City.

At 6 p.m., as the storm increased in intensity, it approached Tinker field. Just southwest of the field, a tornado funnel dropped from the boiling cloud base and swept the length of the field. Although damage to aircraft which could not be moved from outdoor storage ran into the millions of dollars, the base still saved many other millions.

With this dramatic proof of the validity of their methods, the airforce weathermen realized they had a new forecast technique. They set to work to systematically assemble and analyze all available past data on tornado-producing storms. W.E. Maughan, Oklahoma City meteorologist, opened his files on 40 years of weather data.

Microfilmed weather records for the U.S. weather bureau, the navy and the airforce's weather station added valuable information. Every spare minute for the next two years was devoted to compiling statistics and checking and cross-checking their analysis method on past storms. Daily forecasts began in the spring of 1949 while refinements and details of their methods were ironed out.

Reviews of their methods by top service meteorologists in Washington resulted in widespread interest in their research an developments in the field of forecasting. Their findings presented in January, 1950, at the American Meteorological Society meeting in St. Louis, were acclaimed by weather bureau, airlines, military and research meteorologists.

In October, 1949, Col. Fawbush and Capt. Miller flew to Kansas City, to present their findings at a seminar of weather bureau forecasters. Shortly thereafter, an experimental forecasting program was launched by the bureau forecasters responsible for predicting weather activity for Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri.

During the spring of 1950 liaison was established between the airforce and the Kansas City weather office for the purpose of advising Kansas City of areas in which the officers felt tornadic conditions could develop.

The two airforce officers are now issuing early warning forecasts of critical areas over the whole United States over the airforce weather teletype network. These forecasts are not only for tornadoes, but also for direction and force of straight-line winds, in excess of 55 miles an hour, accompanying thunderstorms, and the size of hailstones which can be considered damaging to ground installations or aircraft in flight.

Areas of sever turbulence aloft, which may be forecast to aircraft in flight, also in forecast. These forecasts are transmitted for the information and utilization of airforce weather stations over the whole country.

The Fawbush-Miller system of severe storm forecasting will gain further national recognition when an illustrated article on the two Tinker weather officers and their method appears in the July 25 issue of the Saturday Evening Post.